国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在博科尼大学的开幕致辞（中英双语）

Building a Future for Italy’s Youth – Challenging the Present, Daring the Future

为意大利的年轻人创造美好未来——勇敢挑战今天，无畏面对明天

Bocconi University Inaugural Speech

博科尼大学开幕致辞

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

2014 年12 月9 日，星期二

Good morning everyone – Buongiorno!

大家上午好——Buongiorno（意大利问候语）！

President Mario Monti, Rector Andrea Sironi – thank you for the kind introduction.

感谢马里奥·蒙蒂主席和安德烈·西罗尼校长的热情介绍。

Distinguished professors, students and guests – thank you for welcoming me here today.

尊敬的各位教授、学生和来宾，谢谢大家对我的欢迎。

It is a great honor to deliver the inaugural address for this academic year at Bocconi – one of the most prestigious universities in Europe, and indeed, the world.

非常荣幸在博科尼大学致本学年开幕辞。博科尼大学是欧洲乃至全世界最有声望的大学之一。

What I admire about Bocconi goes well beyond its academic and intellectual excellence. Bocconi truly embraces a global view in its curricula, in its culture, and in its values. The spirit of tolerance and multilateralism runs in your DNA! And in this, I hope you agree, we are very much alike!

我钦佩博科尼大学，不仅是因为它在学术和思想上的杰出成就。博科尼大学的课程、文化和价值中真正体现了全球视角。宽容精神与多边主义根植于你们的DNA！我希望你们也认可这一点，那就是我们在这方面非常相似！

It is also such a pleasure to be back in Milano! I am always reminded of my first visit to Santa Maria delle Grazie and of the genius of da Vinci. It is true, he left his mark in many cities during his lifetime – but it was really in Milano where his genius and talents were nurtured and began to flourish.

再次来到米兰，这也让我备感欣喜！我总是回想起我第一次来到圣玛利亚修道院的情景，想起达·芬奇这位天才。的确，他一生中在许多城市都留下了印记，但是，是在米兰这座城市，他的天赋和才干得以滋养和繁盛

Da Vinci was the quintessential Renaissance Man – a multi-talented visionary well ahead of his time. He dared the future by challenging the present, and he was not shy to challenge others.

达·芬奇是典型的“文艺复兴人”——多才多艺、有远见卓识的人，远远超前于他所处的时代。他通过迎接今天的挑战勇敢地面对明天，也不惧向别人质疑。

I was struck by this one quote of his, which is now a favorite of mine: “Chi poco pensa molto erra.” “He who thinks little, errs much.”

他说过的一句话让我深受触动，这也是我现在最喜爱的格言之一：“Chi poco pensa

molto erra. ”“思考少的人会错得多。”

So, today, when thinking about my favorite subject, the economy, let us think a little bigger. Let us start from a blank canvas, as da Vinci, and imagine the future.

那么，今天，谈起我喜欢的话题——经济，就让我们把思路放宽一些。让我们首先拿起一块空白的画布，就像达·芬奇一样，然后想象未来。

Normally we would use bright colors to paint that future, using imagination, energy, and hope. But these days, darker colors seem more in order, and this is what I would like to talk to you about. The grey clouds of entrenched low growth and high unemployment, especially among the young. How can we get the color of hope back into this picture?

我们一般会用明艳的颜色描绘未来，用我们的想象力、能量和希望去描绘。但这些日子里，我们看到的更多是暗淡的颜色。这正是我想跟大家说的。经济增长持续低迷、失业率居高不下（特别是年轻人失业）的阴云笼罩着我们。我们怎样才能找回希望之色，将它描绘到这幅画中呢？

I am troubled to no end by the stark contrast between the benefits and promises that education brings with it – here at Bocconi and elsewhere – and the harsh reality that many young adults face in the labor market. That they do not get the chance to apply their educated minds to the workplace, to hone their skills in the day-to-day work environment, or to gain the experience necessary to embark on successful careers. This has become a pervasive problem in Europe, and it is particularly acute in Italy.

教育带给我们收益和希望——在博科尼大学，在其他地方。同时，许多年轻人在就业市场上面对着严峻的现实——他们没有机会将所受教育用到工作中，没有机会在日常工作环境中磨炼他们的技能，没有机会获得踏上成功职业生涯所需的经验。以上这两方面之间的鲜明对照一直困扰着我。年轻人的失业在欧洲已成为一个普遍问题，在意大利尤为如此。

This is not just a cross for the young to bear. Sooner or later this is a cross that society will need to bear. Persistent unemployment not only undermines economic activity, it undermines people’s self-esteem, and it tears at the fabric of society and institutions by breeding inequality and sometimes violence.

这不仅是年轻人面对的问题，迟早也将是整个社会需要面对的问题。持续失业不仅会损害经济活动，而且会损害人们的自尊，同时，会滋生不平等，有时还会引起暴力，从而摧毁社会和制度架构。

Tackling the problem of youth unemployment is therefore a shared responsibility—between government, the private sector, and society as a whole – at both the national and European levels. With this in mind, I would like to focus on three key topics that can help shape your future:

所以，解决年轻人失业问题是政府、私人部门和整个社会的共同责任，包括在各国和整个欧洲层面。为此，我想着重谈谈影响你们未来的三个问题：

(i) First, a deeper look at the problem of youth unemployment;

1）首先，深入分析年轻人失业问题。

(ii) Second, the remedies that can be pursued at the national level to tackle it; and

2）其次，各国为解决这一问题可以采取的补救措施。

(iii) Finally, policies at the Euro Area level to complement and reinforce national policies to support growth and combat youth unemployment.

3）第三，为辅助和增强国家政策，支持经济增长和解决年轻人失业问题，需要在欧元区层面实施的政策。

1. Youth Unemployment – Causes and Consequences

一、年轻人失业——原因和后果

Today, unemployment among Italy’s youth stands at more than 40 percent – the highest in almost 30 years. If the unemployed could form their own region, they would be almost as big as Umbria – 700,000 people. These numbers would make Mona Lisa frown, not smile!

现在，意大利年轻人失业率超过40%，处于近30 年来的最高水平。如果失业者自成一个地区，那将几乎与翁布利亚区一样大——有70 万人。这些数字会让蒙娜丽莎眉头紧锁，而不是面带微笑！

The IMF is publishing today a paper called “Youth Unemployment in Advanced Europe: Searching for Solutions” which looks at this very issue, not just for Italy but for other countries in Europe as well. Here are two key messages from that paper:

基金组织今天发布了一份题为《欧洲先进经济体的年轻人失业问题——寻找解决办法》的文件。该文件分析了这一问题，不仅针对意大利，还包括欧洲其他国家。下面是该文传达的两个主要讯息。

First, when growth is low, youth unemployment is high. On average, across advanced European countries, the impact of weak growth on youth is three times larger than that for the adult unemployed. In fact, about 70 percent of the increase in youth unemployment in vulnerable countries during the crisis can be traced back to feeble growth.

首先，如果经济增长缓慢，年轻人失业率就会很高。在欧洲先进国家，平均来说，经济增长疲软对年轻人的影响是对成年失业者影响的三倍。事实上，危机期间脆弱国家年轻人失业的加剧约有70%可归因于经济增长疲软。

What is the implication? Reviving growth is a first order priority. Our research shows that one additional percentage point of GDP growth in Italy can lower the youth unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. That’s a lot of people going back to work. This would be an important step forward.

这说明什么？加快经济增长是重中之重。我们的研究显示，在意大利，GDP增长率每上升1个百分点，年轻人失业率会下降0.6个百分点。很多人将重新找到工作。这将是向前迈出的重要一步。

Second, institutions matter. In many countries, including Italy, youth unemployment was already quite high when the global crisis struck. The crisis simply made the situation worse.

其次，制度很重要。在许多国家，包括意大利，当全球危机爆发时，年轻人失业率已经很高。危机只是使失业情况加剧。

Why is that? Because certain labor market characteristics – such as high levels of protection for workers on permanent contracts or large hiring costs – conspire against youth employment. And in countries such as Italy, they make youth unemployment even more sensitive to growth.

为什么会这样？因为劳动力市场的某些特征（例如，对永久合同工人的高水平保护或高额雇用成本）不利于年轻人就业。并且，在意大利等国，这些特征使年轻人失业对经济增长更为敏感。

Let me put these two findings in perspective and give you a sense of magnitude. Between 1996 and 2001, Italy was able to reduce its total unemployment rate by 7 percentage points by growing at an average rate of almost 2 percent per year.

我把这两个分析结果合在一起，给大家一个数量概念。1996－2001年，意大利在每年平均增长近2%的情况下，得以将总失业率降低7 个百分点。

The problem is that our current forecasts for growth are far weaker – about 1 percent annually over the next four years. At the same time, inflation remains persistently low – usually a clear sign that resources remain underutilized.

问题是，我们当前的增长预测要弱得多——今后四年每年约为1%。同时，通胀率仍然很低，这通常清晰地显示了资源没有得到充分利用。

Low growth and low inflation are a toxic mix. They create a vicious circle: if you expect low growth in the future, you will invest less, and hire less, today. Overcoming this vicious cycle is the challenge, not only for Italy, but for Europe as well.

低增长和低通胀是一种“有毒的组合”。它们形成恶性循环：如果预期未来经济增长缓慢，当前就会减少投资和雇佣。打破这种恶性循环不仅对意大利是个挑战，对整个欧洲也是挑战。

2. Unleashing Italy’s Potential – Past is Not Prologue

二、释放意大利的潜力——过去不代表未来

This is where we lay the dark colors on our canvas aside. We need to think bold and colorful when we act, and action is needed on the structural reforms and institutional changes that could unleash Italy’s productivity and growth.

所以，我们要把画布上的暗淡颜色放到一边。当我们行动时，要想着鲜亮、多彩的颜色。我们需要采取行动，实施结构改革，促成制度变化，以释放意大利的生产力和经济增长。

As the father of the “third dimension” that provided perspective and improved contrast, Leonardo revolutionized the way in which we conceive objects and innovate. So just as he would point out that a painting in 3D is far more convincing and appealing to the viewer, let me give you my set of reforms in three dimensions as well.

达·芬奇是“第三维度”之父，赋予图象更全面的视角和更鲜明的对比。他革新了我们构思和创新的方式。所以，如何他今天还在，肯定会说三维画面更有说服力、更吸引观者。那么，我也从三个维度来谈谈改革。

The first dimension is labor market reform. The Italian labor market today suffers from what some call a “duality,” and others refer to as an “insider-outsider” problem. Insiders have permanent contracts with a high degree of protection; while outsiders, mostly young people, are hired on temporary contracts and receive little training.

第一个维度是劳动力市场改革。意大利劳动力市场目前陷入所谓的“双重性”问题，也就是一些人所称的“局内人－局外人”问题。局内人有保护程度更高的永久合同，而局外人（大多是年轻人）是按临时合同雇佣的，几乎得不到培训。

This is not only unfair, but also inefficient. Companies have little incentive to invest in young people. This is why theJobs Act – and its focus on creating a new labor contract with gradually increasing protection – is so important to tackle pervasive duality and make the market work better for both workers and firms.

这不仅不公平，而且无效率。公司没有什么动力投资于年轻人。这就是为什么《就业法案》（其重点是建立新的用工合同，逐步提高保护程度）非常重要，它有助于解决普遍存在的双重性问题，使市场更好地服务于工人和公司。

Another important element of the Jobs Act is active labor market policies. These include helping the unemployed to receive the training and job search assistance they need. Austria, Finland and Sweden all show that these policies can work. In Sweden for example, incentives for the young unemployed to actively seek jobs are paired with active job matching support and apprenticeship training if needed.

《就业法案》的另一个重要内容是积极的劳动力市场政策。这包括帮助失业者获得所需的培训和就业协助。奥地利、芬兰和瑞典的经验都表明这些政策能够发挥作用。例如，瑞典一方面采取激励措施鼓励失业的年轻人积极寻找工作，一方面提供积极的工作匹配支持和必要的学徒培训。

Even then, the Jobs Act would need to be complemented with measures to lower marginal tax rates – or the “tax wedge” – which discourage investment in labor and capital. Despite recent efforts, this labor tax wedge in Italy remains well above the OECD average.

即使如此，在实施《就业法案》的同时，还需采取措施降低边际税率（也称“税收楔子”，其会阻碍对劳动力和资本的投资）。尽管意大利最近在这方面做出了努力，但其劳动力“税收楔子”仍大大高于经合组织平均水平。

Why is this important? Reducing the labor tax wedge in Italy to the average European level could lower youth unemployment by some 4-8 percentage points. That could mean anywhere from 60,000–130,000 young people going back to work!

这为什么是一个重要问题？将意大利的劳动力“税收楔子”降到欧洲平均水平，可使年轻人失业率下降4-8个百分点。这意味着，6万至13万年轻人将重新找到工作！

New markets and open markets can also be powerful catalysts for job creation. For example, opening up the legal profession and enhancing competition in the retail sector can boost productivity and facilitate movement of workers across sectors where they are most needed.

在就业创造过程中，新的市场和开放的市场也可能发挥有力的催化作用。例如，放开法律行业和加强零售部门的竞争有助于提高生产率，促进工人跨部门流向最需要的领域。

Think back to da Vinci. He changed locations and jobs quite frequently – moving from Firenze to Milano, Roma, Bologna and Venice to Clos Luce in France – and reinventing himself wherever he went – as a painter, sculptor, engineer, anatomist, musician and mathematician. A flexible and open labor market was essential for da Vinci’s entrepreneurial and innovative spirit to thrive. This is the spirit and dynamism that we would like to see rekindled in Italy – a rejuvenated Italy for the 21st century.

再说一说达·芬奇。他经常换地方、换工作。从佛罗伦萨到米兰，到罗马，到波隆那，到威尼斯，到法国的克洛吕斯。每到一处他都换个身份——画家、雕塑家、工程师、解剖学家、音乐家以及数学家。达·芬奇的创业和创新精神能得以蓬勃发展，灵活、开放的劳动力市场必不可少，这就是我们希望在意大利重新点燃的精神和活力——21世纪的意大利复兴。

So labor market reform is the first dimension. The second dimension is judicial reform.

所以，劳动力市场改革是第一个维度。第二个维度是司法改革。

A major factor behind Italy’s weak business environment is its lengthy judicial process. By some estimates, it takes more than a thousand days to enforce a contract in Italy – more than twice the OECD average.

意大利商业环境薄弱的一个主要原因是其司法程序漫长。根据一些估计，在意大利，执行一份合同所花时间长达1000天以上，是经合组织平均水平的两倍多。

And the regional disparities in judicial efficiency are large, especially in labor courts. For example, it takes less than 300 days to resolve a labor dispute in Piemonte or Trentino, but more than a thousand days in Puglia or Sicilia – the regions facing some of the most challenging economic situations.

司法效率的地区差异很大，特别是在劳动力法庭上。例如，在皮埃蒙特或特伦蒂诺地区，解决一项劳动争议所花时间不到300天，而在普利亚或西西里岛（这些地区面临一些最具挑战的经济形势），则不止1000天。

Greater judicial efficiency would lower the cost of credit, encourage investment, and importantly, facilitate employment. In fact, our research on regional disparities suggests that halving the duration of labor disputes raises the probability of being employed by about 8 percent.

提高司法效率能降低信贷成本，鼓励投资，更为重要的是，还能促进就业。事实上，我们对地区差异开展的研究显示，如果将解决劳动争议的时间缩短一半，就业机会将增加约8%。

Measures such as the online civil trial (processo civile telematico) introduced earlier this year can deliver important efficiency gains. The success of the “Strasbourg Program” adopted by the Turin Court is a powerful demonstration that developing court performance indicators can help increase judicial efficiency and accountability. Embedding this approach throughout the country could be a promising next step.

今年早些时候实行的网上民事审判（processo civile telematico）等措施显著提高了效率。都灵法院成功实施了“斯特拉斯堡计划”，有力地证明了制定法院绩效指标有助于提高司法效率和加强问责。下一步可以在意大利全国范围内采用这一方法，这可能是非常有成效的措施。

The third dimension is the banking sector where reform is needed to make it stronger to support the recovery, especially in the small and medium enterprise sector.

第三个维度是银行部门。需要改革银行部门，使其更加强健，为经济复苏特别是中小企业的复苏提供支持。

At present, the financial system in Italy is saddled with bad loans and constrained in its ability to provide credit. The ECB’s comprehensive assessment was an important step in outlining the magnitude of the problem and its potential remedies.

目前，意大利的金融体系充斥着大量坏账，提供信贷的能力受到限制。欧洲中央银行的综合评估是在明确问题严重程度和提供可能的补救办法方面迈出的重要一步。

So what needs to be done? We need insolvency regimes to help businesses and households clean up their balance sheets. The same is true for banks. Write-off rates need to be stepped up significantly to bring down bad debt ratios to pre-crisis levels.

所以，需要采取什么措施？我们需要破产制度，帮助企业和住户清理资产负债表。银行也是如此。需要显著提高注销率，将坏账率降到危机前水平。

By the same token, reviving the small and medium enterprise (SMEs) sector can be crucial in facilitating the flow of credit to the economy. SMEs are the backbone of the Italian economy – they account for about 80 percent of the private sector workforce and 70 percent of business value-added.

同样，重振中小企业对于促进信贷资金流向实体经济至关重要。中小企业是意大利经济的支柱，它们约占私人部门劳动力的80%，商业增加值的70%。

Still, because of high leverage and weak profitability, they are suffering more than large firms from the financial crisis. A broad strategy focused on facilitating the restructuring of the SME sector would be a powerful impetus to growth and job creation.

不过，由于杠杆率高、盈利能力弱，这些中小企业从金融危机中受到的冲击比大企业更严重。应采取广泛的战略，侧重于促进中小企业的重组，这能有力地推动经济增长和就业创造。

Taking them all together: labor market reform, judicial reform, and banking sector reform are the dimensions we need to keep in our field of vision in painting the canvas of strong, inclusive, and job-rich growth in Italy.

把这些改革合起来，即将劳动力市场改革、司法改革和银行部门改革纳入我们的视野，以此描绘出一幅意大利强劲、具有包容性、有利于就业的经济增长前景的油画。

3. Euro Area Policies – Supporting the Recovery

三、欧元区政策——支持复苏

What about Europe? Italy has always been an anchor of European activity and stability – and the mutual prospects of Europe and Italy are inextricably linked.

整个欧洲呢？意大利一直是欧洲经济活动和稳定的重要支点——欧洲和意大利的前景是紧紧交织在一起的。

Indeed, for Italy’s efforts to succeed, they must be complemented by a comprehensive strategy at the Euro Area level to support a durable and robust recovery. The euro zone has to fire on all cylinders.

的确，意大利的改革若要取得成功，必须得到欧元区层面促进持久强劲复苏的综合战略的支持。欧元区必须全力以赴。

Let me start with monetary policy. It has been at the forefront of the policymaking landscape, and needs to continue to play a crucial role in supporting demand.

首先谈谈货币政策。货币政策一直处于政策制定的最前沿，在支持需求方面需要继续发挥关键作用。

The ECB has taken bold steps in recent months – announcing significant outright purchases of private assets, for example. These measures should help prop up demand and fend off the risks from persistently low inflation.

欧洲中央银行近几个月采取了大刀阔斧的措施——例如，宣布大量直接购买私人资产。这些措施应有助于刺激需求和抵御持续低通胀带来的风险。

Even so, should the growth and inflation outlook soften further, the ECB has indicated that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet even more, including through purchases of sovereign assets. This is to be welcomed – but monetary policy alone is not enough.

即使如此，如果增长和通胀前景进一步减弱，欧洲中央银行已表示将随时准备进一步扩大其资产负债表，包括通过购买主权资产。这是令人欢迎的举措，但仅靠货币政策是不够的。

Fiscal policy also has a key role to play – and fiscal measures must be as growth – and job-friendly as possible. Think of cost-effective, efficient pan-European public infrastructure projects that could help lay the foundations for sustained growth. Think of cross-border investments in transportation, communications, and energy networks. These are key ingredients to support innovation and productivity growth.

财政政策也有重要作用——财政措施必须尽可能有利于经济增长和就业。具有成本效益的、高效的泛欧洲公共基础设施项目有助于为持续增长奠定基础。对交通运输、通讯和能源网络的跨境投资也能起到有益作用。这些是支持创新、促进生产力提高的重要措施。

Last, and very importantly, there is some flexibility within the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact to support public investment and implementation of structural reforms. These may vary depending on the specific country, but include streamlining regulatory burdens, opening up product and services markets such as energy, and deepening capital markets. This flexibility should be explored to encourage productive outlays and measures to foster growth and job creation.

最后很重要的一点是，《增长与稳定公约》的规则在支持公共投资和实施结构改革方面具有一定灵活性。具体措施因不同国家而异，但都包括简化监管程序、放开产品和服务市场（如能源）以及深化资本市场。应当运用这种灵活性，鼓励生产性支出以及促进增长和就业的措施。

I know today’s student generation is facing some of the toughest prospects in a very long time. Unemployment, especially of the young, is a blemish on any society. It erodes talent, saps aspiration, and depletes dignity. It is a multifaceted problem, and requires a multipronged solution.

我知道，当今的学生一代面对着长期以来一些最为严峻的前景。失业，特别是年轻人的失业，在任何社会都是一个棘手问题。失业会侵蚀人的才干、削弱人的抱负、损害人的尊严。失业是一个涉及多方面的问题，需要采取多管齐下的解决办法。

The solutions I have laid out are neither in code nor are they spelled from right to left, so you will not need a mirror to decipher them. Cynics may say that reforms take too much time to take effect, and that the immediate outlays are unduly high.

我给大家提出的解决办法不是以密码表示的，也不是从右向左拼写的，所以你们不需要一面镜子来解读。持怀疑态度的人可能会说，改革可能需要太长时间才见成效，而当前的支出看起来可能太高。

But cynicism is a recipe for policy paralysis and economic inertia – a past that could very well be prologue. We must take a different path. One that is not easy, and requires hard work, but one that has the potential to bring about the change that is needed.

但这种怀疑会导致政策麻痹和经济惯性——过去很可能预言了未来。我们必须走另一条路。一条不轻松、需要付出艰苦努力，但有可能带来必要变革的道路。

Italy has so often demonstrated its resilience in the face of difficult circumstances. So today I appeal to you to bet on a new future: one where the Italian genius is once again unleashed, where creativity and dynamism are the hallmarks of broad-based prosperity – among youth, women, entrepreneurs, and all Italians.

意大利在面临困境时总是展示了适应恢复能力。所以，今天我呼吁大家为崭新的未来奋起一搏。在这个未来中，意大利的天赋才能再次得到释放，年轻人、女性、企业家以及所有意大利人将共享繁荣，而创造力和活力是这个繁荣社会的清晰标志。

How would da Vinci advise us? Think of how many years it took him to complete “The Last Supper” – four years by some accounts, and many more if we count the restorations! Yet today it remains one of the most beautiful and awe inspiring pieces of art ever created.

达·芬奇会给我们什么建议？想一想他花了多少年时间才完成“最后的晚餐”——按一些说法是四年，但如果我们算上修复时间，那就多得多了。但是，今天，这幅画仍是最美、最令人震撼的艺术作品之一。

We all hold the tools to thinking, drawing, and building a brilliant future for our youth. Let’s use them wisely.

我们都掌握着思考、描绘、为年轻人创造美好未来的工具。让我们聪明地使用这些工具吧。

Grazie. Thank you.

Grazie。谢谢各位。

来源：IMF

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