The IMF at 70: Making the Right Choices—Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow
基金组织70周年：做出正确的选择——昨天、今天和明天
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，国际货币基金组织总裁
The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings
基金组织/世界银行年会
Washington, D.C. October 10, 2014
华盛顿特区，2014年10月10日
Introduction
导言
Mr. Chairman, Governors, honored guests:
主席先生、各位理事、贵宾们：
On behalf of the IMF, let me warmly welcome you to these Annual Meetings. And on the occasion of our 70th anniversary, let me wish you, and all of our 188 member countries, a very happy birthday!
我谨代表基金组织，热忱欢迎各位参加本届年会。值此基金组织70周年纪念日之际，我在此祝愿诸位以及188个成员国生日快乐！
I would like to recognize my good friend and excellent colleague, President Jim Kim, and his great teams who are doing such good work at the World Bank. Happy birthday to you too!
我要感谢我的好友和同事世界银行行长金墉先生和他的团队，他们做得非常出色。也祝你们生日快乐！
This is a moment to reflect on the 70-year journey that we have all taken together. Even more importantly, it is a moment to look ahead. The choices we make today will shape our future.
此时此刻，我们要回想一起走过的70年历程，但更重要的是展望未来。今天的选择将决定我们有怎样的未来。
So let me begin with a story:
下面我想先给大家讲个故事：
In Lewis Carroll’s classic, Alice in Wonderland, there is a scene in which young Alice comes to a fork in the road, where she meets the Cheshire Cat. Alice asks the cat which way she should go:
路易丝·卡罗的经典小说《爱丽斯梦游仙境》中有这样一个场景，小爱丽丝在一个岔路口遇到了柴郡猫，于是她问自己该走哪条路：
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” says the cat.
“这得看你想去哪儿，”猫回答说。
“I don’t really care where,” says Alice.
“我并不特别在意去哪儿，”爱丽丝说。
“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go”, says the Cheshire cat.
“那你走哪条路也都无所谓了，”猫再次回答。
Why do I begin with this story? For a simple reason: the path we choose at a critical fork in the road has crucial consequences.
为什么要先讲这个故事呢？原因很简单：在这个关键的岔路口上，我们选择的道路将产生至关重要的影响。
It matters where we want to go in order to decide which way we go.
Forks in the Road
岔路口
Almost exactly a hundred years ago, the world took a dramatically wrong turn. This was a period of great technological advances, a time of optimism and openness. And yet, instead of using these technological wonders for the betterment of humanity, they were turned toward massive destruction.
约一百年前发生了一个完全错误的转折。那是一个科技飞速进步、乐观开放的时代。但这些科技奇迹并没有给人类带来更多福祉，而是造成了巨大的破坏。
The gates of cooperation were bolted shut.
合作之门就这样关闭了。
Because of this wrong turn, the world went through three decades of carnage, chaos, and calamity. But then something changed.
这个错误的转折开启了三十年的屠杀、混乱和灾难。但最后发生了变化。
Seventy years ago, in 1944, the world faced another fork in the road. This time, it chose the right path. It was the original “multilateral moment”, which gave birth to institutions of cooperation like the Fund and the Bank.
70年前，也就是1944年，世界再次站在了分岔路上。这次它选择了正确的道路。这便是最初的“多边时刻”，从此诞生了基金组织和世界银行等合作机构。
John Maynard Keyes called it “that bigger thing we are bringing to birth”.
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯称之为“我们正在创造的更伟大的事”。
This choice has paid off over the decades—with rising prosperity, greater stability, and lower poverty. The IMF has played an essential role: helping to fight crisis after crisis; helping low-income and transition countries gain a foothold in the global economy; and helping to build capacity, strength, and resilience across our entire membership.
过去几十年，这一选择已经带来了回报：各国越来越繁荣，世界越来越稳定，贫困也得以减轻。基金组织发挥了必不可少的作用。它帮助应对各种危机，帮助低收入和转型国家在全球经济中获得一席之地，帮助所有成员国开展能力建设，提高实力和恢复能力。
Today, the Fund continues to respond to conditions on the ground, forcefully and flexibly. Since 2008, we have committed almost $700 billion to countries in need, provided training to all of our members, and technical assistance to 90 percent of them. Over the last several months alone, we provided fresh financial assistance to Ukraine, the Arab transition countries, and the African nations hit by Ebola.
今天，基金组织一如既往地以有力而灵活的方式应对发生的各种情况。2008年以来，我们承诺向有需求的国家提供近7000亿美元的贷款，向所有成员国提供培训，并向90%的成员国提供技术援助。仅几个月前，我们刚刚向乌克兰、阿拉伯转型国家以及受埃博拉病毒影响的非洲国家提供了资金援助。
Seventy years after Bretton Woods, the international community stands at another fork in the road. The tried-and-true modes of cooperation seem to be fraying around the edges. The sustainability of the global economic engine itself is increasingly being questioned.
布雷顿森林会议召开70年后，国际社会再次站在了岔路口上。原本行之有效的合作方式似乎开始分崩离析。全球经济动力可持续性本身越来越为人质疑。
Can it really deliver the jobs, the incomes, the better living standards that people aspire to?
这种方式真的能像人们希望的那样创造就业，提高收入，改善生活水平？
There are three key collective choices to be made:
我们要共同做出三个主要选择：
First, how do we achieve the growth and jobs needed to advance prosperity and ensure social harmony? I would call this the choice between acceleration and stagnation.
第一，我们如何实现促进繁荣和确保社会和谐所必需的增长和就业？我把这称为加速与停滞之间的抉择。
Second, how do we make this interconnected world a more inclusive, safer place for all of us to thrive? This is the choice between stability and fragility.
第二，我们如何使这个互联的世界更包容、更安全，使我们都能繁荣发展？这是稳定与脆弱之间的选择。
Third, how do we strengthen cooperation and multilateralism, instead of isolationism and insularity? This is the choice between solidarity and seclusion.
第三，我们如何加强合作和多边主义，而不是加剧隔离和狭隘？这是团结与闭塞之间的选择。
Our future hinges on our choices.
今天的选择决定了明天的命运。
1. Acceleration or stagnation
1、加速或停滞
Let me start with the first and most basic choice of all—acceleration or stagnation. The prospects for growth and jobs. When we look down the road, we all know that there are huge obstacles in our path.
我先讲一下第一个也是大家面临的最基本的选择——加速或停滞，也就是增长和就业的前景。展望前路，我们会发现将有重重障碍。
We experience unprecedented demographic change, as the workforce in many of the world’s most dynamic economies—both advanced and emerging—enters their twilight years. In less than a decade, the over-65s will outnumber the under-5s—for the first time ever.
我们经历了前所未有的人口变化，许多最有活力的经济体（既包括先进经济体也包括新兴经济体）进入劳动力衰退期。在不到十年的时间里，65岁以上人口将首次超过5岁以下人口。
There has been a staggering rise in inequality—7 out of 10 people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the last three decades. And yet, we know that excessive inequality saps growth, inhibits inclusion, and undermines trust and social capital.
不平等现象显著加剧，今天每10个人中有7个人所在的国度，过去三十年来经历了越来越严重的不平等现象。然而，我们知道过度不平等会妨碍增长，损害包容性，破坏信任和社会资本。
And again, we live in a period of dramatic innovation, with all its potential. But the digital revolution is not job-intensive, and it could contribute to further inequalities.
另外，我们生活在一个快速创新、充满巨大潜力的时代。但数字革命不会创造太多就业机会，反而加剧了不平等现象。
If we are not careful, the ghosts of the 19th century will haunt the 21st century.
如果我们不多加小心，19世纪的阴影将笼罩21世纪。
Think also of the ecological carnage that comes with a rapidly warming planet. We all know the stark facts—the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 17 years. The incidence of weather-related disasters has increased threefold since the 1960s. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.
此外，全球快速变暖对生态环境造成了重大破坏。我们都知道这个残酷的现实——历史上温度最高的12个年份都出现在过去17年里。20世纪60年代以来，与天气相关的灾难性事件增加到过去的三倍。到2030年，世界约一半人口将生活在供水压力大或极度缺水的地区。
But the threats to growth do not just come from the future, they assail us from the past.
但是威胁增长的因素不光来自未来，它们从过去就困扰着我们。
What do I mean? I mean that it is taking a very long time for the global economy to climb out of the hole dug by the Great Recession. We expect growth of only 3.3 percent this year, and still under 4 percent next year.
这是什么意思呢？我是说全球经济要经过很长一段时间才能摆脱“大衰退”造成的困境。我们预计今年的增长率只有3.3%，明年也不到4%。
Of even more concern: we are stuck in a painful jobs crisis. 200 million people around the world are looking for work today—if the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. In some regions—southern Europe and North Africa—youth unemployment is now a chronic social problem, leading to widespread disenchantment and disengagement.
更令人担忧的是，我们深陷严重的就业危机。今天，全世界还有2亿人正在找工作。如果失业人口自成一国，那将成为世界第五大国。目前在南欧和北非等地区，年青人失业是一个长期的社会问题，许多人梦想破坏，与社会脱节。
As Dostoyevsky once put it, “deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence”.
正如陀思妥耶夫斯基所言，“如果不从事有意义的工作，人们就失去了存在的理由”。
All told, we risk getting stuck in a “new mediocre” of poor growth and paltry job creation. To overcome it, we need “new momentum” on the policy front.
总而言之，我们可能陷入经济增长疲软、就业创造不足的“新平庸”状态。对此，要在政策方面形成“新势头”予以克服。
On the demand side, monetary policy should certainly continue to support the recovery—and with careful attention to potential spillovers and spillbacks. Fiscal policy must be customized to country circumstances—and we must not give up the gains that have accrued in recent years. At the same time, fiscal policy must be as growth- and jobs-friendly as possible.
在需求方面，货币政策无疑应继续支持复苏，我们要密切注意潜在的溢出和溢回效应。财政政策必须根据各国具体情况而定，我们不能放弃这几年积累的成果。同时，财政政策必须尽可能的促进增长和就业。
On the supply side, we need movement across many dimensions. Opening up cozy monopolies in service industries. Boosting infrastructure investment. Improving educational opportunities, financial inclusion, and the business environment—especially in many emerging markets and low-income countries. Using fiscal instruments—like carbon pricing—both to help make energy use more efficient and to encourage people to make green choices.
在供给方面，我们要多方面行动起来：打破服务业的垄断；促进基础设施投资；改善教育机会、金融服务普及性和商业环境，特别是在许多新兴市场和低收入国家。采用碳定价等财政工具，既帮助提高能源使用效率，又鼓励人们保护环境。
These are not new insights, but action in the past has often lacked. This time the challenge is for real. We must aim higher, try harder, and work better together to achieve higher growth outcomes.
这些并不是什么新的想法，只是以往通常缺乏行动。面对当下切实的挑战，我们要志存高远，奋发图强，加强合作，实现更高的增长。
We also need to make the job market more inclusive. This means active labor market policies and training programs to help young people. It means more family-friendly policies like affordable child-care and flexible working arrangements to entice more women into the workforce.
我们还要使就业市场更具包容性。这意味着要采取积极的劳动力市场政策和培训计划帮助年青人，意味着要采取更有利于家庭的政策，如实惠的保育安排和灵活的工作安排，吸引更多妇女加入到劳动力大军中来。
Remember, an estimated 865 million women around the world are being held back. Yet we know that enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men is an economic game-changer.
我们要记住，全世界约8.65亿妇女没有参与劳动力市场。我们都知道，使女性像男性一样平等参与，是经济活动的变革性因素。
The IMF stands ready to help our members with this agenda—offering country-specific advice on the reforms needed to make growth more sustainable, job-rich, and inclusive. That’s what we are here for.
基金组织已做好准备帮助成员国实施这项议程。它将针对各国具体情况，提出必要的具体改革建议，促进更可持续、创造更多就业以及包容性更强的增长。
2. Stability or fragility
2、稳定或脆弱
What about the second big choice—between stability and fragility? Just as there are present and future threats to growth, there are similar threats to financial stability.
第二个重大选择是稳定与脆弱之间的选择。经济增长面临当前和未来因素的威胁，金融稳定也面临类似的威胁。
While the real economy might suffer from too little investment, the financial sector might be flying too close to the sun. Putting it another way, there is too little economic risk taking, and too much financial risk taking.
一方面投资太少可能影响实体经济发展，另一方面金融部门可能承担过高风险。换句话说，经济风险承担不足，而金融风险承担过度。
Again, monetary policy needs to stay accommodative, to get the growth we need. Yet one side effect is the danger, once again, of a rush toward reckless risk taking.
此外，为了实现必要增长，必须继续实行宽松的货币政策，但会产生副作用，即不计后果地承担风险所带来的危害。
While there are a number of warning signs, the risks are particularly acute in the nonbank sector. One example: mutual funds now account for 27 percent of global high-yield debt, twice as much as in 2007. At the same time, risks are more concentrated—the top ten global asset management firms now control a whopping $19 trillion. This is larger than the world’s largest economy—the United States.
尽管有不少预警信号，非银行部门的风险尤其严重。比如，目前共同基金占全球高收益债务的27%，是2007年的两倍。同时，风险越来越集中，全球前十大资产管理公司现在控制了19万亿的庞大资产，规模比全球最大经济体美国还大。
History teaches us a clear lesson—the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. A sudden shift in sentiment could easily cascade across the entire globe.
历史清楚地告诉我们——繁荣时越是兴旺，萧条时的破坏就愈严重。情绪的突然转变很容易延伸到全球。
This feeds into the longer-term issue that affects financial stability—the increasing interconnectedness of the world economy. As you know, financial flows can zap and zoom across the world at lightning speed.
这就造成了影响金融稳定的长期问题——世界经济日益增强的互联性。我们都知道，资金能迅速地在全球流动。
The degree of financial integration has jumped tenfold since the IMF was founded. In the two decades before the crisis, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent.
自基金组织成立以来，金融一体化程度已提高到从前的十倍。危机爆发前的二十年里，国际银行贷款占世界GDP的比重上升了250%。
This interconnectedness offers great benefits—allowing more people to access global financial networks. But it also comes with a dark side: it makes financial crises more likely to occur, and more virulent when they do occur. 2008 was a stark reminder of this.
互联性带来了巨大的惠益，使更多人能进入全球金融网络。但同时也有不好的一面：金融危机发生的可能性增大，爆发时影响更恶劣。2008年就说明了这一点。
Ultimately, we need to be able to garner the good and banish the bad. We need to be proactive, not passive.
归根结底，我们要有能力趋利避害，要积极主动，而不是消极被动。
As Tagore once said, “You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water”.
正如泰戈尔所言，“你无法只站在那里看海就能渡海”。
That means we need the right tools and policies. If financial markets are more challenging, then policies must be more powerful, and regulators and supervisors must be better equipped. The bottom line? We must complete the financial sector reform agenda, and we must continue to update it as financial minds are creative and fertile in seeking out new loopholes.
这说明我们需要恰当的工具和政策。如果金融市场面临更多挑战，那就必须采取更有力的政策和更完备的监管。最终，我们必须完成金融部门改革议程，必须不断更新，因为丰富且有创意的金融观念总能找出新的漏洞。
We have made good progress, especially on banking regulation. Yet we still need to overcome the too-important-to-fail problem. We need better rules for nonbanks, better monitoring of shadow banks, and better safety and transparency over derivatives. We need to strengthen macroprudential safeguards.
我们取得了长足的进展，特别是在银行监管领域。但我们仍需克服银行太大以至于不能倒闭的问题。我们要进一步制定非银行监管规则，更好地监测影子银行，提高衍生品的安全性和透明度。我们还要加强宏观审慎保障。
And let’s be candid: we need to see a change in culture and behavior. We need to move away from the myopic mentality that led to the crisis—the tendency to prize profit over prudence, self-interest over service, excess over ethics.
坦率地讲，我们要在文化和行为方面有所改变。我们要抛弃造成危机的浅薄思想，这种倾向导致利益凌驾于审慎之上，个人利益高于服务意识，贪婪战胜道德。
The IMF has a key role to play in coping with this new world of interconnections.
基金组织在应对这种新的世界互联性中发挥重要作用。
A world of large capital flows means that we need a large global safety net. Regional arrangements—including the new BRICs contingency reserve arrangement—certainly have an important role to play. But the IMF, as the only truly global institution focused on financial stability, must have adequate instruments and resources.
大量资金流意味着我们要有大规模的全球安全网。区域性安排（包括新的金砖国家应急储备安排）无疑扮演着重要角色。但基金组织作为唯一一个重点关注金融稳定的真正全球性机构，必须掌握充分的工具和资源。
It is a lesson that has been learned many times over the past 70 years: a strong global economy requires a strong IMF.
过去70年的经历已经多次告诉我们：强大的全球经济需要有力的基金组织。
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3. Solidarity or seclusion
3、团结或闭塞
Let me now turn to the third and final big choice facing us—solidarity versus seclusion. Do we lift high the banner of cooperation or do we sink low into the mud of provincialism?
现在我谈谈我们要做的第三个也是最后一个重要选择——团结与闭塞。我们是否高举合作大旗？抑或是否深陷排外主义的泥潭？
You all know the answer. You know that the most fertile ground is common ground; the best form of self-help is mutual help; the best kind of knowledge is shared knowledge. This is why we are all here today.
答案不言自明。我们都知道，最肥沃的土地是共有的土地；帮助别人才能更好地帮助自己；最睿智的知识是懂得分享知识。这正是我们今天汇聚一堂的原因。
It is why you are members of the IMF!
这也是你们加入基金组织的原因！
Yet you also know that the global economy is undergoing radical shifts. Fifty years ago, the emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP. Today, it is half, and rising rapidly. During the global crisis, it was the emerging markets that contributed most to global growth.
但诸位也清楚，世界经济正在发生根本性改变。50年前新兴市场和发展中经济体约占世界GDP的四分之一，而今天这一比重已经达到一半，而且还在迅速上升。全球危机期间，正是新兴市场为全球增长做出了最大贡献。
This diffusion of power is not restricted to nation states. Aided by technology, we also see the rapid rise of a more diverse network of global stakeholders: NGOs, cities, and even citizen activists. Powered by social media, they have proven their ability to force policy change.
力量的传播不只局限于民族国家。在科技的推动下，更加多元化的全球利益攸关方网络迅速崛起：非政府组织、城市甚至公民活动家。他们通过社会媒体展示了自己迫使政策改变的能力。
This new reality demands a new response—but not a new philosophy. It requires us to update, adapt, and deepen our modes of global cooperation. It requires using the wonders of technology for the betterment of humanity. It requires what I have a called a “new multilateralism”.
新现象需要有新回应，但不是新理念。这需要我们更新、调整和深化全球合作模式，需要我们利用科技奇迹为人类谋福祉，需要促进我所说的“新多边主义”。
In the words of Maya Angelou: “to give birth again to the dream”.
正如玛雅·安吉罗所说，“要给予梦想以新生”。
What does this mean in practical terms? For a start, it means a re-commitment to the values of open trade and investment. It means resisting the lure of “beggar-thy-neighbor” economics. It means placing the global good above individual self-interest.
这句话有什么现实意义呢？首先，这意味着要重拾开放贸易和投资价值观，意味着要抵御以邻为壑经济理念的诱惑，还意味着全球利益高于一己私利。
There are three areas where progress is vital:
以下三个领域的进展至关重要：
First, in the financial sector: we need cooperation to come to an agreement on the cross-border resolution of megabanks.
首先是金融部门：我们要开展合作，就超大型银行的跨境处置问题达成一致。
Second, we know that tax competition especially hurts low-income countries as they strive to mobilize badly-needed revenue. The international community needs to go further in making it more difficult to shift taxes from one country to another simply for profit.
其次，我们明白税收竞争给低收入国家带来的危害更大，因为这些国家正努力获得亟需的收入。国际社会需进一步努力，阻止仅以获利为目的的国家间税收转移。
Third, on external imbalances: we know that behind every current account deficit lies a current account surplus. Countries on both sides must take responsibility for balance and stability.
最后是外部失衡。我们清楚，一个国家的经常账户出现逆差，就有相应的国家出现顺差。双方都有责任保持平衡和稳定。
Renewed solidarity also calls for global action to turn the tide of climate change. 2015 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year. If we miss this chance, then we are failing the world’s poorest people, the generations to come, and the planet.
重新实现团结还需要采取全球行动，扭转气候变化态势。2015年是成败攸关的一年。错过这个机会，意味着我们有负于世界最贫穷人口，有负于后辈子孙，也有负于整个世界。
So we must not fail. The new multilateralism must prevail. And the IMF has a pivotal role to play.
所以我们不能失败。推行新多边主义高于一切。而基金组织发挥着重要作用。
Every day—and often nights as well—our magnificent staff and Executive Board are working hard for you. They are a uniquely talented group of people—dedicated to the ideals of international public service, steadfast in their zeal to make the world a better place. I am immensely proud of them—and all of those who have served the Fund so well over these 70 years. I know you are proud too.
基金组织出色的工作人员和执行董事会夜以继日地辛勤工作。他们出类拔萃，致力于提供国际公共服务，始终保持着让世界更美好的激情。我由衷地为你们自豪，为过去70年来所有为基金组织做出卓越贡献的人而自豪。而且我知道，你们也一样为之自豪。
Here, let me pay special tribute to a dear member of our family, Wabel Abdallah. Wabel was our resident representative in Afghanistan, and he was brutally killed by a terrorist attack in Kabul earlier this year. He represented the Fund at its very best. Wabel devoted his life to helping the people of Afghanistan, and he died doing his duty. We miss him dearly. As they say in Arabic, “lel fakeed al rahma”—mercy to the departed.
在此，我要特别向我们大家庭里亲爱的一员Wabel Abdallah致以敬意。Wabel是基金组织在阿富汗的常驻代表，在今年前段时间喀布尔爆发的恐怖袭击中惨遭杀害。他展现了基金组织最好的一面。Wabel为帮助阿富汗人民献出了宝贵的生命，为履行自己的职责献出了生命。我们深深地缅怀他。正如阿拉伯语中所说的“lel fakeed al rahma”——愿逝者安息。
At the Fund, we have mourned Wabel’s loss together. But we are honoring him day by day through our continued commitment to global cooperation. This includes our work with higher-risk countries, where it is more important than ever to work toward sound institutions, so that people will one day face a better and more stable future.
在基金组织，我们一起悼念Wabel。但一如既往地推动全球合作更表达了我们平日对他的尊敬。这包括与高风险国家开展合作。在这些国家，努力建立稳定的制度，使人们最终能有更美好、更稳定的未来，具有前所未有的重要性。
We will continue to adapt to changing realities on the ground. And we must strive to be even more representative of our dynamic global membership.
我们将继续适应不断变化的现实情况。我们必须努力更好地体现全球成员国的动态发展。
That makes completing the 2010 governance reforms so crucial. Our membership knows what needs to be done.
有鉴于此，完成2010年治理改革至关重要。各成员国都知道需要做些什么。
The right choice must be made.
我们必须做出正确的选择。
Conclusion: Our Choices
结语：我们的选择
Mr. Chairman, Governors, let me conclude:
主席先生、各位理事，最后我想说：
At this key fork in the road, let us choose acceleration over stagnation, stability over fragility, solidarity over seclusion.
在这个关键的岔路口上，让我们选择加速而不是停滞，稳定而不是脆弱，团结而不是闭塞。
Let us choose the path of 1944, not 1914.
我们要选择的是1944年而不是1914年那样的道路。
I began with a popular children’s story, let me end with another. In J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter, the protagonist is given this key piece of advice: “It is our choices, Harry, that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities”.
我开头给大家讲了一个童话故事，最后再给大家讲个故事。J.K.罗琳所著的《哈里·波特》中，男主角得到了一条重要的建议：“这是我们的选择，哈里，它展示了我们的本色，而不仅仅是我们的能力”。
Our choices.
我们的选择。
Thank you.
谢谢。 |
