First, a quick health check on the global economy. We will be releasing our updated forecasts next week, so today I will touch only upon the broad trends.
Overall, the global economy is weaker than we had envisaged even six months ago. Only a modest pickup is foreseen for 2015, as the outlook for potential growth has been pared down.
Prospects differ, of course, across countries and regions. In fact, this is one of the most striking characteristics of the current economic conjuncture: it is very country-specific.
Among advanced economies, the rebound is expected to be strongest in the United States and the United Kingdom; modest in Japan; and weakest in the Euro Area, within which there are disparities.
Emerging market and developing economies have been doing much of the heavy lifting during this crisis – accounting for more than 80 percent of world growth since 2008. Led by Asia, and China in particular, we expect that they will continue to help drive global activity. For them too, however, it is likely to be at a slower pace than before.
危机期间，全球经济增长主要由新兴市场和发展中经济体拉动。自2008年以来，它们在全球经济增长中的比重超过80%。在亚洲，特别是中国的带领下，我们预计这些经济体将继续推动全球经济增长。然而，它们的经济增速也很可能慢于之前。
For the low-income developing countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa, economic prospects are rising – with growth projected broadly to accelerate beyond the 6 percent recorded last year. But as debt builds up in some countries, they need to be watching as well.
Finally, in the Middle East, the outlook is clouded by difficult economic transitions and by intense social and political strife.
The bottom line? Six years after the financial crisis began, we see continued weakness in the global economy. Countries are still dealing with the legacies of the crisis, including high debt burdens and unemployment. In addition, there are some serious clouds on the horizon:
Low growth for a long time is one. What do I mean? If people expect growth potential to be lower tomorrow, they will cut back on investment and consumption today. This dynamic could seriously impede the recovery, especially in advanced economies that are also grappling with high unemployment and low inflation. This is the case for the Euro Area.
长期低增长是其一。这是什么意思呢？如果人们预计明天的增长潜力会下降，他们便会减少今天的投资与消费。这种动态关系会严重阻碍经济复苏，特别是那些还在努力应付高失业和低通胀问题的先进经济体。欧元区便是如此。
There is also a cloud hovering around asynchronous monetary policy normalization in advanced economies and its potential spillovers to other countries around the world – and back – both through their impact on interest rates and exchange rate variations.
As well as these “economic” clouds, there are financial ones. There is concern that financial sector excesses may be building up, especially in advanced economies. Asset valuations are at an all time high; spreads and volatility are at an all time low.
A further worry is the migration of new market and liquidity risks to the “shadows” of the financial world. This is part of the less-regulated, nonbank sector, which is growing rapidly in some countries. In the United States, for example, shadow banking is now considerably larger than the traditional banking system; in Europe, it is roughly half the size; and in China, at 25-35 percent, it is the fifth largest shadow banking sector in the world.
更大的担忧是，新市场和流动性风险可能转移至金融世界的“影子”中，即那些未受严格监管的非银行部门的一部分，它在有些国家发展迅猛。例如，美国的影子银行目前显著大于传统银行体系；欧洲影子银行的规模约为传统银行的一半；中国影子银行的规模约相当于传统银行的25-35%，为全球第五大影子银行部门。
Of course, nonbank activities can complement the banking sector in financing the economy in important ways. Yet, the opaqueness of these activities warrants heightened vigilance. They also warrant increased efforts to complete the agenda of financial sector reform, including resolving the too-important-to-fail problem, setting an appropriate perimeter for the monitoring of shadow banks, and making the derivatives markets safer and more transparent.
当然，非银行部门的活动可以在为经济提供融资过程中对银行部门形成重要补充。然而，这些活动的不透明性值得我们提高警惕，还值得我们加倍努力完成金融部门改革议程，包括解决太重要而不能倒的问题，为监测影子银行确定适当范围，以及提高衍生品市场的安全性和透明度。
As well as economic and financial “clouds”, there are geopolitical risks. They include:
A possible further escalation of the situation in Ukraine, which could provoke disruptions in commodity prices, financial markets and trade;
And an expansion of the Ebola outbreak in Africa, which could pose a significant risk to the region and indeed the world, if not urgently and appropriately addressed.
All of these risks, of course, also involve immense human suffering and we hope that they do not develop. But we would be remiss simply to ignore them.
2. New Momentum – Policy Priorities
2、新势头—政策优先事项
The global economy is at an inflection point: it can muddle along with sub-par growth – a “new mediocre”; or it can aim for a better path where bold policies would accelerate growth, increase employment, and achieve a “new momentum”.
全球经济正处于拐点：它可以一直保持低增长,也就是“新平庸”；或者走一条更好的路子，制定大刀阔斧的政策，加快增长，促进就业，形成“新势头”。
How can this second “m” – momentum – be generated?
那么如何才能产生第二个“m”—势头呢？
For one thing, we need better balance in our policy toolkit – using both the demand and supply side of the economy. Think of the famous Georgetown Hoyas basketball team – you need all players to work together to win. You need teamwork. The same is true for the global economy. Each policy instrument must play its part in order to achieve proper balance.
一方面，我们要更好地平衡政策工具包—对经济供求双方都要利用起来。就好比著名的乔治城大学篮球队（Hoyas），只有所有队员通力合作才能赢得比赛。团队合作是必需的。发展全球经济也是如此。每项政策工具必须发挥应有的作用才能实现恰当的平衡。
Monetary policy has provided important support to demand during this crisis. In the U.S., for example, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has done much to aid recovery.
在危机期间，货币政策为刺激需求提供了有力支撑。以美国为例，美联储的量化宽松政策为促进经济复苏做出了重要贡献。
But monetary policy cannot suffice. Moreover, the longer easy money policies continue, the greater the risk of fuelling financial excess. This needs to be monitored and managed.
但仅有货币政策是不够的。而且，宽松货币政策持续的时间越长，导致金融过剩的风险就越大。这就需要监测和管理。
Equally important, as I mentioned earlier, where the prospect of exit from monetary easing looms – as in the U.S. – the implications for other parts of the world need to be monitored and managed. A continued gradual approach with clear communication from the Fed is key.
还有一点也很重要。正如我刚才所提到的，如果可能退出货币宽松政策，比如美国就有此打算，那么必需监测和管理此举对世界其他国家和地区的影响。美联储采取持续渐进且清晰沟通的方式十分关键。
So too is the adoption of appropriate macro-prudential policies by those countries that stand to be most affected by monetary normalization – especially emerging markets. What does “macro-prudential” mean? It means measures that can help prevent financial excesses and protect the stability of the financial system, such as minimum liquidity ratios.
受货币政策正常化影响最严重的国家，特别是新兴经济体，采取恰当的宏观审慎政策也是重要的方面。何谓“宏观审慎”呢？宏观审慎就是指那些有助于防范金融过剩和保护金融系统稳定性的措施，如最低流动性比率。
So back to the Hoyas: monetary policy is playing its part. Now it needs more support from the rest of the team – other policies. There are three important and interrelated elements here – and all can help promote a higher level of growth and jobs: fiscal policies; structural reforms of labor and product markets; and public investment in infrastructure.
我们再回到Hoyas这个例子：货币政策正在发挥作用。现在需要其他队员，也就是其他政策的更多支持。有三个重要且相互关联的因素，都有助于提高经济增长和就业水平：财政政策、劳动力和产品市场结构性改革和对基础设施的公共投资。
Let me touch on each of these.
下面我们一一来看：
(i) First, growth-friendly and job-friendly fiscal policies.
（1）一是促进增长和就业的财政政策。
A great deal has been achieved in many countries in recent years to reduce excessive deficit and bring debt under control. These gains must not be squandered. And yet, there are still a few levers that fiscal policy can pull to boost growth and jobs:
近年来，许多国家在控制债务和赤字方面取得了长足的进展。这些进步不能白白浪费。另外，财政政策还可以利用以下手段促进增长和就业：
The pace of consolidation and composition of fiscal measures should support economic activity to the extent possible. Of course, specific timing and scope for flexibility must be attuned to country circumstances. That is why the IMF has given this issue priority in the programs that we support – from Africa to the Euro Area. A sensible pace.
财政整顿的节奏和财政措施的构成应尽可能支持经济活动。当然，具体时机和政策弹性要根据各国实际情况灵活调整。这也是为什么基金组织在其资助的规划中将此列为优先事项，无论非洲还是欧元区都是如此。这个节奏是合理的。
Well-targeted fiscal measures can contribute too, such as reforms that can address tax evasion, support more efficient public spending, and reduce the burden on labor – lower payroll taxes, for instance. A sensible mix.
目标明确的财政措施也有帮助，比如能够遏制偷税漏税、提高公共开支效率和减少劳动力负担（如降低工资税）的改革。这种组合也是合理的。
The reform of energy subsidies, which we estimate at about US$2 trillion, can also generate revenue. As it stands, these subsidies mostly benefit the relatively affluent, not the poor. They also harm the environment.
能源补贴（估计约2万亿美元）改革也能产生收入。按照目前的状况，这些补贴大多数只对相对富裕的人有益，穷人难以从中获益，另外还危害环境。
So growth-friendly, job-friendly, environment-friendly fiscal policies can help. But they cannot substitute for policies to remove deep-seated distortions in labor and product markets.
因此促进增长、提高就业且环保的财政政策能有所帮助。但这些政策不能代替那些旨在根除劳动力和产品市场根深蒂固的扭曲现象的政策。
(ii) That brings me to the “structural reforms” that are so essential to raise productivity, competitiveness and employment.
（2）接下来我要谈一谈对提高生产率、竞争力和就业水平至关重要的“结构性改革”。
What should be done? First of all, the scale of the challenge should not be underestimated. Today, more than 200 million people around the world are still unemployed, of which 75 million are youth. In addition, with the exception of the top 1 percent, most people have seen their incomes stagnate or shrink over the past few years.
我们应该做些什么呢？首先不应低估挑战的规模。如今全世界仍有2亿多失业人口，其中7500万是年青人。另外，过去几年除了收入最高的1%的人群，大部分人的收入没有变化或在缩水。
To lift consumption and investment, we need more robust job and wage growth. In particular, we need to make labor markets stronger. How?
为了提振消费和投资，就业和工资要有更大幅度的增长。我们尤其要强化劳动力市场。那么该如何做呢？
Through well-designed, active labor market policies and training programs that bolster the demand for workers – especially young people. There are some useful examples in countries like Australia, Germany, and Sweden; and
精心设计积极主动的劳动力市场政策和培训规划，刺激对劳动者特别是年轻劳动者的需求。澳大利亚、德国和瑞典的做法堪为楷模；以及
Through policies that increase labor participation, especially of women. In Japan, for example, a major effort is ongoing to expand the supply of day-care centers to encourage women to join the labor force – and as a way to offset aging pressures. Similar policies are explored in Korea.
采取提高劳动参与率特别是妇女参与劳动率的政策。比如，日本正在采取一项重要措施，建立更多日间护理中心，以鼓励妇女加入劳动力大军，同时减轻老龄化带来的压力。韩国正在探索实施类似政策。
Opening up of product and service markets can also reinforce the gains from labor market reforms – one example being the many professions, from lawyers to taxi drivers, which are closed to competition in many countries.
开放产品和服务市场也能强化劳动力市场改革带来的收益。比如，许多国家的不少行业（从律师到出租车司机）都没有开放的竞争。
Even then, these policies would only go so far unless we improve the flow of credit to the economy. We need insolvency regimes that can help banks and the private sector effectively deal with their debt burdens – to free up their balance sheets so credit can flow back and grease the wheels of the economy.
即便如此，除非改善经济体的信贷流动，否则这些政策也只能取得目前的效果。我们要建立能帮助银行和私营部门有效处理债务负担的破产制度，解除资产负债表限制，实现信贷回流，形成经济发展的动力。
Again, no one size fits all here. Policies must be designed according to country circumstances. But whatever the country-specific measures might be, all nations need to place a much higher premium on structural reform – and on investment.
对此也没有“一刀切”的办法。各国应根据各自的具体情况制定政策。但无论采取怎样的具体措施，各国都需要更加重视结构性改革以及投资。
(iii) Public investment in infrastructure is especially important. Why?
（3）针对基础设施的公共投资尤为重要。原因为何？
The crisis has inflicted a heavy toll on both growth and investment, which remain well below their long-term trends. As of last year, we have estimated that for the G-20 countries, GDP is 8 percent lower than it could otherwise have been. The shortfall in investment is even higher – nearly 20 percent below trend.
危机严重阻碍了经济增长和投资，其当前水平均远低于长期趋势。截至去年，我们估计20国集团的GDP比未发生危机的情形下低8%。投资缺口甚至更大，比趋势水平低近20%。
In advanced economies, capital stocks – airports, electricity, internet grids – were depleted as public investment was steadily scaled back by a quarter – from about 4 percent of GDP in the 1980s to 3 percent today. Is it any surprise that aging infrastructure is now such a major concern?
先进经济体的公共投资（比如对机场、电网、互联网等资本存量的投资）逐渐相应缩减了四分之一，占GDP比重从20世纪80年代的约4%下降到如今的3%。基础设施老化已经成为当前人们担忧的主要问题之一，这奇怪吗？
Right here in Washington DC, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that 99 percent of the major roads are in poor condition. Globally, some estimates place spending on infrastructure at US$6 trillion over the next 15 years. This is an obvious imperative in many countries, where bottlenecks and obstacles to transportation and energy supply abound and hamper development.
就在华盛顿特区，美国土木工程师协会估计有99%的主干道路年久失修。据估测，未来15年全球基础设施开支将达6万亿美元。这对许多面临运输和能源供应瓶颈从而阻碍经济发展的国家来说显然迫在眉睫。
Again, the scope for investment differs across countries – depending on infrastructure gaps and fiscal space. And for all countries, ensuring efficient infrastructure spending is crucial. There is no question, however, that it can be a powerful impetus for growth and jobs.
投资范围各国均不相同，取决于基础设施缺口和财政空间。确保高效的基础设施开支对所有国家来说都是至关重要的。但毫无疑问的是，这将成为经济增长和就业的强大动力。
One more point: recent estimates – by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate – indicate that integrating lower emission standards into infrastructure investment would cost only a tiny fraction (about 4.5 percent) of total projected spending. So efficient investment – especially at a time of historically low interest rates – can be good for growth, good for jobs, and good for the environment.
还有一点，根据全球经济和气候委员会最近的估测，将低排放标准纳入基础设施投资所产生的费用只占预计总开支的很小一部分（约4.5%）。因此高效投资既有利于增长也能刺激就业、保护环境，在利率处于历史低位的时候尤其如此。
Concluding remarks on the new multilateralism and role of the Fund
结束语：新多边主义和基金组织的作用
We have talked about “mediocre” growth and the policy “momentum” needed to overcome it. I would like to conclude with my third “M” – multilateralism.
我们刚刚探讨了“平庸”增长和克服平庸增长的政策“动力”，最后我想讲讲第三个“m”—多边主义。
We have seen some concrete examples of global economic cooperation in action during this crisis.
在危机期间采取的行动中，我们已经见到了不少全球经济合作的具体事例。
Perhaps most prominent has been the G20 nations coming together – including to provide additional resources to the IMF – to bolster confidence and safeguard the global financial system. Just a few weeks ago, the G20 announced further progress in developing strategies to lift medium-term growth by a collective 2 percent of GDP by 2018 – holding the promise of more growth and jobs.
或许最引人瞩目的就是20国集团的合作。它们采取了向基金组织提供更多资源等措施，以提振信心，并保护全球金融系统安全。就在几周前，20国集团宣布，在制定战略实现2018年整体GDP增长2%的中期目标方面取得了新进展，实现了促进增长和就业的承诺。
The IMF, of course, has been a forum for cooperation throughout its 70-year history. This has continued during this crisis.
基金组织在其70年的历史中发挥了合作平台的作用，在危机期间也继续发挥着相同的作用。
We have revamped our lending toolkit, including by making our instruments more flexible in providing liquidity on a precautionary basis and easier to access in emergencies. And we introduced zero-interest loans for our low-income members. We have also significantly increased our financial assistance across the globe – close to US$700 billion in commitments over the last 6 years.
我们改良了贷款工具，使它们在预防基础上提供流动性时更加灵活，获得紧急贷款也更加容易。我们为低收入成员国提供零利息贷款，大大增加了全球金融援助，过去6年的贷款承诺接近7000亿美元。
We have done some new analysis and thinking on a range of critical issues: on capital flow management and capital controls; and on the growing interconnectedness of the global economy and the spillover effects of one country’s policies on others. We have pushed the envelope on the negative effects of excessive inequality on growth; the fiscal implications of climate change; and – something very close to my own heart – the role of women in the work force and their powerful potential to boost growth and incomes.
我们重新分析、思考了一系列关键问题：资本流动管理和资本控制、全球经济日益显著的互联性，一国政策对其他国家的溢出效应。我们在以下方面取得了空前的成绩：应对经济增长过度不均的负面影响、气候变化的财政影响，以及我本人非常重视的妇女在劳动力大军中的作用和她们促进增长、提高收入的巨大潜力。
It might surprise you to learn that the largest service that the IMF now provides is capacity building and technical assistance. Almost 90 percent of our 188 members have benefited– from Mauritius to Myanmar to Mexico. We have also initiated a massive open online course – a “MOOC” – with almost 2000 graduates from all over the world, in the last year.
基金组织目前提供的最主要服务是能力建设和技术援助，这可能令诸位大吃一惊。从毛里求斯到缅甸再到墨西哥，188个成员国中约有90%从中受益。我们已经启动大规模的网络公开课（MOOC），去年全球已有约2000名毕业生。
To be effective in the 21st century, of course, we need to be adequately resourced and adequately reflect the dynamic nature of our global membership. To that end, the vast majority of our members have approved an IMF governance measure: the 2010 Quota reform. We now await approval by our largest shareholder–the United States–which we hope will happen soon.
当然，为了在21世纪取得成果，我们要有足够的资源，充分反映全球成员国的动态特征。为此，绝大部分成员国批准了基金组织的治理改革措施：2010年份额改革。现在正在等待基金组织最大的股东——美国的批准，我们希望美国能尽早批准。
Seventy years on, we continue to adapt to fulfill our raison d’être – to safeguard stability by helping countries through economic fallouts, and forging cooperative solutions to global problems. For you and for generations to come.
下一个70年，我们不断调整，践行我们最重要的使命--帮助各国克服负面经济影响以维持稳定，针对全球性问题提出合作式解决方案。这样做的目的是为了诸位和更长远的将来。
As I like to say sometimes: “This is not your father’s IMF”. Actually, it is yours!
正如我常说的：“基金组织不属于你们的父辈。”事实上，它是属于你们！
Together, as we look forward to the future, perhaps those wonderful Georgetown colors can help guide us: there are some “grey” clouds, but – aiming higher, trying harder, doing it together – we can gain new momentum and bring the “blue” skies.
展望未来，我们或许能从乔治城的奇妙色彩中得到启示：“灰”云虽在，但只要我们志存高远、奋发图强、齐心协力，就能形成新的发展势头，重见湛湛“蓝”天。
Thank you.
谢谢。
来源：网络
