English as She Was Spoken
英语如其所言
English is the most successful language in the history of the world．It is spoken on every continent，is learnt as a second language by schoolchildren and is the vehicle of science，global business and popular culture．Many think it will spread without end．But Nicholas Ostler，a scholar of the rise and fall of languages，makes a surprising prediction in his latest book：The days of English as the world' s lingua franca may be numbered．
在世界历史进程中，英语是最成功的一种语言。全世界各大洲都讲英语。学童们将其作为第二语言来学习，而且它也是科学、全球商贸和流行文化的载体。很多人认为英语的传播永无止境。然而，一位研究语言兴衰变迁的学者尼古拉斯· 奥斯勒在他最新出版的书中却做出了惊人的预言：英语作为世界通用语言时日无多了。
Some lingua francas have ridden trade routes，but these are tongues of convenience that change quickly with circumstances．Phoenician spread from its home in modern Lebanon along the northern coast of Africa，where（pronounced in Latin as Punic）it became the language of the Carthaginian empire．But Rome' s destruction of Carthage in 146 BC reduced it to a dwindling local vernacular．Greek，by contrast，planted deeper roots，surviving not only Rome' s rise but also its fall，to serve as the lingua franca of the eastern Mediterranean for over 1000 years．
一些通用语言伴随着贸易的轨迹而发展，但这些语言只不过是为了应对一时的方便，经常随着环境的变化而改变。腓尼基语发源于今日的黎巴嫩地区，沿着非洲的北部海岸广为传播（其拉丁读音为“Punic”）。然而随着公元前146 年古罗马对迦太基的征服，腓尼基语也就衰落成小范围内的地方方言。与此相反，希腊语却根深蒂固，它历经古罗马兴衰而生生不息，作为地中海东岸的通用语言繁盛了长达一千多年。
What does all this，then，have to do with English？Often very little．It seems sometimes that Mr．Ostler，fascinated by ancient uses of language，wanted to write a different sort of book but was persuaded by his publisher to play up the English angle．The core arguments about the future of English come in two chapters at the end of the book．But the predictions are striking．
那么，这一切究竟和英语有什么关系呢？通常没什么关系。奥斯勒先生有时似乎对古代语言的应用着了迷，原打算把书写成另一种风格，但却在图书出版商的说服下大肆宣扬英语。关于英语未来的核心观点出现在书中的最后两章，但其预言非常惊人。
English is expanding as a lingua franca but not as a mother tongue．More than 1 billion people speak English worldwide but only about 330m of them as a first language，and this population is not spreading．The future of English is in the hands of countries outside the core Anglophone group．Will they always learn English？
英语是作为一门世界通用语而不是作为一门母语而广泛传播的。全世界讲英语的人超过10 亿，但其中只有约3. 3 亿人将其作为母语，而后者的数量不会扩大。因此英语的未来并不掌握在以英语为母语的核心群体之手，而在英语圈外的国家手中。他们会永远学英语吗？奥斯勒先生提出，两个新因素将阻碍英语的传播，即：现代民族主义和技术。
Mr．Ostler suggests that two new factors—modern nationalism and technology—will check the spread of English．English will fade as a lingua franca，he argues，but not because some other language will take its place．No pretender is pan- regional enough，and only Africa' s linguistic situation may be sufficiently fluid to have its future choices influenced by outsiders．Rather，English will have no successor because none will be needed．Technology，Mr．Ostler believes，will fill the need．
奥斯勒先生指出，英语将作为一门通用语而逐渐衰落，但这并不是因为其他语言会取代它的位置。除了非洲的语言环境有足够的流动性，其未来的选择将受外部的影响外，目前尚无任何一门语言具有足够大的泛地域性能觊觎英语的地位。更确切地说，英语作为一门通用语言将没有接替语言，因为没有这个必要。奥斯特勒认为，技术将填补这一需求。
This argument relies on huge advances in computer translation and speech recognition．Mr．Ostler acknowledges that so far such software is a disappointment even after 50 years of intense research，and an explosion in the power of computers．But half a century，though aeons in computer time，is an instant in the sweep of language history．Mr．Ostler is surely right about the nationalist limits to the spread of English as a mother- tongue．If he is right about the technology too，future generations will come to see English as something like calligraphy or Latin：prestigious and traditional，but increasingly dispensable．（468 words）
这一观点是基于计算机翻译和语音识别的巨大进步。奥斯勒先生承认，迄今为止，经过了50 年的努力研究，计算机运行能力激增，但这类软件还是令人失望。尽管对于计算机来说半世纪时间已很漫长，但在语言史上不过是弹指一挥间。奥斯勒先生认为民族主义会限制英语作为母语传播，这一观点无疑非常正确。如果他提到的技术对英语的影响也说对了，那么在我们未来后代的眼中英语就会像书法或拉丁文一样：尊贵而不失传统，但却越来越可有可无。
来源：《英汉互译实践与技巧》
心译翻译工作室
英语翻译
