二、我国经济中长期发展的趋势 Second, medium and long-term trends in the Chinese economy
改革开放30多年来，我国经济年均增长9.8%，可以说是奇迹。但是到了目前这个阶段，如果依然过度依赖投资，能源、资源、环境的瓶颈制约会越来越明显，高速增长靠高投入、高能耗，难以为继了。另外也要看到，我们的成本竞争优势相对在减弱。经济增长的目的还是要改善人民生活，最终要提高人民生活水平和质量，所以提高工资是必然的。不光是人力成本，土地各方面的成本也在增加。还要看到，我们现在的基数也比较高了，去年GDP达到52万亿人民币，在这个基础上增长1%，和GDP在10万亿、5万亿人民币基础上增长1%，那差别就大得多。 After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown at an annual rate of 9.8 percent. This is a miracle. But given the status quo, if China's economy continues to rely principally on investment, then there will be more bottlenecks in energy, resources and the environment. It will be difficult to continue with the high investment and high energy consumption model. It is also worth noting that China's competitive advantage of low costs is also diminishing. The aim of economic growth is to improve people's lives and ultimately advance their living standards. It is therefore necessary to increase people's salaries. As well as human costs, the cost of land and other factors is also increasing. China's GDP is now on a higher level. There is a huge difference between increasing 1 percent of China's GDP based on last year's 52 trillion yuan and that based on 5 or 10 trillion yuan.
作为我们这样一个中等收入国家，经济增长已从原来的高速进入到了中高速阶段。什么叫中高速？我认为，7.5%左右，或者7%以上就是中高速。所谓“中”是和我们过去比较。过去是两位数增长，平均是9.8%。7%以上、7.5%左右就算中速了；但是在世界范围内，我们仍然是高速。特别是在大国中，没有哪个国家有我们这样高的速度。而且我们测算，到2020年实现全面建成小康社会，年均增长速度只要7%就够了。这样，有利于各方面用更多的精力来调整结构，消化过剩产能，加强节能环保，提高质量，保护环境，留出可持续发展空间。要看到，中国经济是有条件长期增长、持续健康发展的，因为我们毕竟还处于工业化、城镇化的发展过程当中。我们现在的城镇化率，说是52%，那是加上半年及以上常住人口，户籍人口城镇化率不到35%。和发达国家比，和同水平的发展中国家比，我们还低了不少，这本身也说明我们有潜力。不光是城乡差距，东中西部发展也还有很大差距。我们现在全国人均GDP是6000美元，东部一些地区上万美元了，可是我们西部地区才3000美元。差距就是潜力。更重要的是，我们改革有巨大的红利。30多年的改革开放，使我们取得了巨大的成就。改革没有止境，我们要下决心推动全面改革，用壮士断腕的精神来推进改革。包括财政公开预算、削减“三公经费”，包括金融改革，推动利率市场化，让小微企业能够更有效、比较低成本地贷到款，等等，这些改革我们都是要推进的。当然，改革是要触动利益的，但是改革是为了人民的利益，为了亿万职工都能过上好日子，没有什么比这个利益更大，为此必须义无反顾。 As a middle-income nation, China's economic growth has gone from medium to high speed. What does this mean? I think that a 7.5 percent or above 7 percent increase is medium speed. We call it "medium" in comparison with China's past economic growth. The economy has maintained double-digit growth for years, averaging at 9.8 percent, so it is medium growth in comparison with this. But in comparison with other countries, it is still high-speed growth, especially for a large country. We have estimated that an annual growth of 7 percent will enable us to build a moderately prosperous society by 2020. This growth will help every sector to adjust structures, handle over-capacity, strengthen energy conservation and environmental protection, enhance economic quality, and leave more room for sustainable development. China has great potential for long-term, sustainable and sound economic growth, as we are still in the process of industrialization and urbanization. China's urbanization rate is 52 percent, but that includes residents who have lived in the urban areas for more than half a year. The registered urban population is less than 35 percent, much less than that of developed countries and developing countries which are at similar level to China. But this indicates potential on our part. As well as the urban-rural gap, there is also a huge disparity among China's eastern, middle and western regions. China's per capita GDP is US$6,000 on average: it is more than US$10,000 in some areas of eastern China while it is only US$3,000 in western China. The indeed signifies potential. More importantly, we have a huge dividend from reform. The achievements we have made in the past three decades can be attributed to our reform and opening-up. There is no limit to reform. We are resolved to reform comprehensively and to promote it with the determination of a warrior cutting one's own wrist. The reforms include disclosing our fiscal budget, cutting down public expenses, financial reforms including liberalizing interest rates, making loans more available for small and micro businesses and lowering costs. Of course reforms will intrude on vested interest. But since reform is aimed at the people's interest, and there is no bigger interest than that of improving the lives of tens of millions of workers, so we must proceed without hesitation.
必须强调，我们未来前进路上还面临很多风险和挑战。像财政、金融的风险，还有产业结构不合理，农业基础依然薄弱，资源环境约束的矛盾加剧，科技创新能力总体上还不强，经济发展面临后起国家追赶和发达国家经济、科技上占优势“两面夹击”压力，等等。要实现经济的持续健康发展很不容易，我们一定要居安思危，增强忧患意识，做好应对复杂困难局面的准备。如何化解存在的风险挑战，需要有勇气和智慧，需要大家齐心协力，同心同德。我们会有阵痛，但是要相信，13亿中国人、亿万中国职工要实现现代化、过上好日子的意志是不可动摇的。我们有这个力量。 I want to emphasize that there are many risks and challenges on the road ahead, such as fiscal and financial risks, the irrational industrial structure, weak agricultural foundation, resources and environmental constraints, and weak technical innovation. Emerging economies are catching up with us and developed countries have advanced economies and technology. These two aspects are squeezing our economic development from two sides. It is not easy to maintain sustained and healthy economic growth. We must think of adversity in times of prosperity, become more aware of hidden risks, and prepare well for a complicated and difficult situation. To deal with these risks and challenges, we need courage and wisdom, to make a concerted effort, and be of one mind. There will be pain, but we must believe that if 1.3 billion Chinese people including millions of Chinese workers are going to modernize the country, and live good lives, then our will must be unshakeable. We possess this strength.

来源：中国网 日期：2013年11月13日

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