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世界银行常务副行长英卓华在2015年中国发展论坛上的讲话(中英双语)
世界银行常务副行长英卓华在2015年中国发展论坛上的讲话(中英双语)
作者:admin  发表时间:2015-4-20
 

Global Leadership in the New Normal

新常态下的全球领导力

 

– Speech by World Bank Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer Sri Mulyani Indrawati at China Development Forum

——世界银行常务副行长英卓华在2015年中国发展论坛上的讲话

 

China Development Forum 2015

2015年中国发展论坛

 

Beijing, March 22, 2015

北京,2015322

 

Excellencies, Honorable Delegates, Ladies and Gentlemen,

 

阁下,尊敬的各位代表,女士们,先生们,

 

It is a great pleasure to once again address the China Development Forum. I want to thank Vice Minister Liu Shijin for his kind introduction and for his long standing support for the partnership between the DRC and the World Bank.  And I would like to thank Chairman Xu Shaoshi for his insightful remarks.

 

我很高兴再次在中国发展论坛上发言。感谢刘世锦主任的介绍,感谢他对国务院发展研究中心与世界银行合作的长期的支持,感谢徐绍史主任见解深刻的发言。

 

Given our topic today the question to start with is: What is normal today?

 

鉴于此次会议的主题,首先的问题是:什么是今天的常态?

 

With a gradual rebalancing of the economy towards services and shifting demographics, China’s ‘New Normal’ presents a different picture. But strictly speaking it is not that new. New directions for China’s economic course have been in the making for years, and the indicative growth rate of about 7 percent for next year is in line with this trend.

 

随着经济逐渐向服务业转型和人口变化,中国的“新常态”呈现出不同的图景,但严格地说并不新。中国经济进程的新方向是多年形成的,明年7%的指导性增长率也符合这一趋势。

 

Reforms for the New Normal

 

深化改革适应新常态

 

China can afford lower growth rates while continuing to deliver the necessary jobs. Not only that, the lower growth rates can also open the space to implement the reforms needed to achieve the ‘New Normal.’

 

中国能够承受较低的增长率,并且继续提供必要的就业岗位。不仅如此,降低增长率还能为推进实现“新常态”必需的改革打开空间。

 

The route to rebalancing demand is complex.  China will have to bring down debt to GDP ratio and gradually wean itself off credit-driven investment as a driver of demand growth.  While external demand can take up some of the slack, a return to the high current account surpluses of the past is neither desirable, nor doable in a world of lackluster growth.

 

需求再平衡之路是复杂的。中国需要降低债务占GDP的比重,逐渐摆脱以信贷驱动投资作为需求增长的驱动力。虽然外需能够拉动部分疲软经济,但重返经常账户盈余既不必要,在世界增长乏力的情况下也不可行。

 

So consumption will have to fill the gap, which means either larger central government consumption, or higher household consumption.  The latter will require a higher household share in national income, which in the short run can best be achieved through fiscal policy as well.

 

因此,必须要以消费填补缺口,这意味着扩大中央政府消费或者增加居民消费。后者会要求提高居民消费在国民收入中的比重,在短期内最佳方式是通过财政政策来实现。

 

Therefore, a smooth transition is likely to require an active fiscal policy that targets consumption, more so if the slowdown were to turn out more rapid than currently foreseen.

 

因此,实现平稳过渡可能需要采取瞄准消费的积极的财政政策,如果经济放慢速度快于目前所预见更当如此。

 

The list of changes underway is long: fiscal reforms, financial sector reforms, land reforms, and environmental management. The revised Budget Law and new rules on local borrowing, a more flexible RMB and deposit rate. New property rights for farmers, including the right to trade rural construction land and opening up of hukou for small and medium cities.

 

进行中的变革清单很长:财政改革、金融改革、土地改革和环境治理、修改后的《预算法》和地方债管理新规、更灵活的人民币汇率和存款利率、赋予农民更多财产权、包括农村建设用地交易权和放开中小城市户籍限制等等。

 

These are remarkable and profound changes already being implemented.

 

这些都是已在实施的巨大而深刻的变革。

 

China is moving fast – not just in comparison with its own past performance, but also compared to other economies in need of structural reforms – and these include almost all other G-20 countries.

 

中国行动迅速,不仅与其自身过去的表现相比,而且与其他需要进行结构改革的经济体、包括几乎所有其他G20国家相比亦如此。

 

But there is no time for complacency and it is important to stay the course. The next phase of reform agenda could get tougher.

 

但没有时间沾沾自喜,重要的是将改革坚持到底。

 

As Premier Li told the National People’s Congress:

 

改革议程的下一个阶段会更加艰难,正如李克强总理在全国人大上所说:

 

“Systemic, institutional and structural problems have become ‘tigers in the road,’ holding up development. Without deepening reform and making economic structural adjustments, we will have a difficult time sustaining steady and sound development.”

 

“体制机制弊端和结构性矛盾是‘拦路虎’,不深化改革和调整经济结构,就难以实现平稳健康发展。”

 

For China the issue is not that it has to deal with the tigers in the road but how to tackle them – so that its people will benefit in a changing environment.

 

对于中国来说,问题不是要不要对付拦路虎,而是如何对付,才能让人民在不断变化的环境中受益。

 

China’s reform path ahead will be different from its past measures. It will require persistence because the results may not manifest themselves as quickly as the costs and the burden.

 

中国未来的改革之路将会不同于过去采取的措施,将需要坚持不懈,因为结果可能不会像成本和负担那样立即显现出来。

 

Let me focus on three areas to make China’s ‘New Normal Growth’ inclusive, sustainable, and efficient.

 

下面我谈谈要实现包容、可持续和更高效的“中国新常态增长”需要改革的三个领域。

 

First, making growth more inclusive.

 

首先,使增长更具包容性

 

China’s record on fighting poverty remains unprecedented. More than 600 million people moved out of poverty since reforms took off in 1978. Without this achievement the millennium development goal of halving global poverty would have been unreachable.  Yet, China has seen a rapid increase in inequality.

 

中国取得的扶贫成就是史无前例的,自1978年改革开放以来6亿多人摆脱了贫困。如果没有中国这一成就,将全球贫困人口比例降低一半的千年发展目标就无法实现。但是,中国也经历了收入不均现象快速上升。

 

Rapidly rising income inequality is a global concern. In China it has been rising fast since reforms took off, although it has been coming down slightly in recent years following a set of measures taken. 

 

收入不均等现象快速上升是一个全球性的问题,中国改革开放以后收入不均等加剧,虽然近年来由于采取了一系列措施而略有下降。

 

China has made tremendous investments in leveling the playing field: in education – to increase people’s capabilities to benefit from growth; in infrastructure – to connect people with markets; and in safety nets – to protect the most vulnerable in its society.

 

中国在建立公平的竞争环境方面做了巨大投入:在教育方面提高人的能力是其能从经济增长中受益;在基础设施方面连通人与市场;在社会安全网方面保护社会弱势群体。

 

As a result, China’s education budget is 7 times higher than in 2000, and the number of people benefiting from China’s safety nets increased from 5 million to over 70 million in the same period.

 

其结果,中国的教育预算与2000年相比提高了7倍,同期社会安全网的覆盖人数从500万人增加到逾7000万人。

 

But from the perspective of growth and development, inequality of opportunity is key.

 

但从增长与发展的角度来说,机会均等是关键。

 

A major area to address is the urban-rural divide. As I mentioned, China is already reforming its hukou system to provide some 100 million migrants access to urban life. At the same time, there are currently some 250 million migrants in China’s cities, and tens of millions more will move to the cities in the years to come.

 

需要解决的一个重要领域是城乡差距。如前所述,中国已在进行户籍制度改革以使1亿多外来移民融入城市生活。与此同时,中国城市目前有移民人口2.5亿,未来还会有大量人口迁入城市。

 

According to our joint urbanization study with the Development Research Center, China can afford to integrate all migrants into the urban fabric, much like Japan and Korea did in their phase of rapid urbanization. To do so would require further reforms in the fiscal system, in pensions and health insurance, in affordable housing, and in rural land rights.

 

根据我们和国务院发展研究中心所做的城镇化联合研究,中国能够负担得起让所有移民融入城市,就像日本和韩国在其快速城市化阶段所做的一样。要实现这一目标,需要进一步推进财政体制、养老金和医疗保险、经济适用房和农村土地制度改革。

 

None of these are easy.

 

这些改革都不容易。

 

However, the pay-offs of such reforms would be large: a mobile, more urban labor force that is as productive and that will increase much needed consumer demand.

 

但改革的回报将会是巨大的:更多的自由流动的城市劳动力,劳动生产率高,且能提振急需的消费需求。

 

Another area of reforms that would increase equality is health care. China has dramatically expanded the health insurance system in the past five years, and more than 90 percent of its people now have coverage.

 

有利提升均等性的另一个改革领域是医疗。中国在过去5年显著扩大了医疗保险覆盖面,覆盖人口比例超过90%

 

The next wave of reforms should focus on improving the quality of health care, while controlling its price tag. The choices that China makes in the coming years will determine how cost-effectively it can care for its aging population and its rapidly rising incidence of non-communicable diseases.

 

下一波改革应着重提高医疗质量,同时控制医疗费用。中国在未来数年所做的抉择,将决定它能否以经济有效的方式照顾快速老龄化的人口,遏制快速上升的慢性病发病率。

 

Together with our Chinese partners, we are currently studying better health care delivery, and we will share our findings later this year. International experience suggests reforms, including: moving away from fee-for-service payments, strengthening the role of health insurers as buyers of services, and shifting demand away from hospital care to primary care.

 

目前我们正在与中方合作伙伴一起研究如何改善医疗卫生服务提供,今年下半年将分享我们的研究发现。根据国际经验,改革内容须包括逐渐减少按服务项目付费的支付方式,加强医疗保险机构作为服务购买方的作用,引导需求从医院转向基层卫生保健服务。

 

Defining, regulating and supervising the role of private health care providers could equally contribute to more cost effective service delivery.

 

明确、管理和监督民营医疗机构的作用,同样可以有利于促进更加经济有效的服务提供。

 

Further reforms to the fiscal system could also address inequality. With China’s labor force becoming more mobile, China needs to ensure that people have access to health care, education, and pensions, where they live. To enable jurisdictions to provide quality services, China could apply a “money-follows-people” principle. The key to financing this principle could be the equalization grant, which currently plays a subordinate role compared to shared taxes and earmarked grants.

 

推进财政体制改革也可以增进均等性。随着中国劳动力的流动性增加,中国需要确保人民能在他们生活所在地获得医疗、教育和养老金。为保证辖区提供优质服务,中国可以采取“人随钱走”的原则,通过均衡性转移支付作为主要资金来源,而不是像目前这种与共享税和专项转移支付相比处于次要地位的状况。

 

For this to work, local governments need to be held accountable for delivering the services that can empower people to improve their lives and that of their families.

 

为达此目的,需要对地方政府提供服务改善民生实行问责。

 

The second item on the ‘New Normal’ agenda is to make growth more sustainable.

 

“新常态”议程的第二项是使增长更可持续。

 

In the past two decades, China has made major efforts to reduce emission intensity and control pollution. China is already the largest producer of renewable energy in the world, and the current Five-Year Plan has hard environmental targets to control energy intensity, pollution, and water use.

 

在过去20年里,中国在降低排放强度和治理污染方面取得了长足的进展。中国已是世界最大的可再生能源生产国,目前的十二五规划设定了控制能源强度、污染和水资源利用方面的硬性环境目标。

 

People not only demand but also deserve a cleaner environment. China understands that to be well-off, its children have to be able to play outside and breathe clean air.

 

人民不仅要求而且也应当得到更清洁的环境。中国很清楚,要想实现小康,就要让孩子们能够在户外玩耍,呼吸清新的空气。

 

China just confirmed that it will commit to enforcing its new environmental law. For the next Five Year Plan, China could achieve a breakthrough by implementing measures currently under consideration. These may include capping energy use, particularly coal and expanding the carbon cap-and-trade-system that is currently piloted in 7 localities across all of China – or alternatively, introducing a tax on carbon. Last year’s drop in coal production by almost 3 percent – the first such drop in decades – signifies that such ambitious goals are feasible.

 

中国最近重申要加强新《环保法》的执法力度。在下一个五年计划期间,中国可望通过实施目前正在考虑的措施来实现一个突破。这些措施包括能源消费尤其是煤炭总量控制、扩大目前在7个地区开展的碳市场总量控制与交易系统试点或者征收碳税。去年煤炭产量减少将近3%,这是数十年来的首次煤炭减产,也表明这些雄心勃勃的目标是可行的。

 

Crucial for China’s success is matching its green ambition with greener governance.  This means building the right institutions, sharpening the instruments of environmental policy and providing the right incentives for local officials to pursue environmental goals. This requires authorities to better coordinate their river management, anti-air pollution measures and the pricing of environmental goods – and taxing of the environmental bads.

 

中国获得成功的关键是将绿色雄心与绿色治理匹配起来,这就意味着建立正确的制度、改进环境政策工具,采取适当的激励机制鼓励地方政府官员追求环境目标。这就要求当局更好地协调江河治理、空气污染治理措施并将环境成本纳入定价机制以及征收环境税。

 

And finally, for local officials to pursue environmental goals, will require a change in the way they are evaluated. Being green should have its rewards.

 

最后,要想让地方政府官员追求环境目标,就需要改变对他们的考核方式,绿色发展应受到奖励。

 

Internationally, the importance of the joint declaration of China and the USA regarding greenhouse gas emissions cannot be overestimated.  China’s submission to the COP-21 meeting could solidify the country’s commitments to global environmental goals and hold or even reverse greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 or before. The next Five Year Plan will be crucial in solidifying the basis for meeting that goal which would not only help China become healthier, but the rest of the world too.

 

从国际上来看,对中美温室气体减排联合声明的重要性绝不能低估。中国对第21届联合国气候变化大会提交的方案将会巩固中国对全球环境目标的承诺,有助于到2030年实现控制甚或逆转温室气体排放。下一个五年规划对于为达到这一目标夯实基础至关重要,这不仅有助于使中国更健康,也有助于使世界更健康。

 

Finally, China aspires to make its growth more efficient and more sustainable.  The ongoing fiscal and financial reforms will go a long way in achieving better use of people’s talents and savings.

 

最后,中国希望使增长更高效、更可持续。进行中的财政和金融改革非常有利于更好地发挥人才与储蓄的作用。

 

They are a start, but much remains to be done, including clarifying responsibilities for different levels of government, strengthening the revenue base for local authorities, further liberalization of interest rates and establishment of a new framework for monetary policy suited for China’s evolving macroeconomic environment.

 

这是一个开端,但还有大量工作要做,包括明晰各级政府的职责、加强地方政府的财政收入基础、进一步开放利率以及建立适合中国不断变化的宏观经济环境的货币政策新框架。

 

Going forward, China needs to harmonize the coexistence of market mechanisms and the role of the government. Two crucial shifts towards more innovation and efficiency have already been made: the 3rd plenum’s principle that the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation and the 4th plenum’s principle of the rule of law.

 

未来中国需要在市场机制与政府的作用之间实现和谐共存。为促进创新与高效已经做出了两个重要的转变:三中全会提出了发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用的原则,四中全会提出了依法治国的原则。

 

Premier Li has spelled out what this fundamental change will mean for the way China is governed: A decisive role for the market requires the government to step back where it can, but regulate and supervise where needed. Rule of law means that – without exception – it is applied equally, irrespective of ownership or nationality of origin.

 

李克强总理详细说明了这一根本性变化对中国政府的管理方式意味着什么:让市场起决定性作用就是要求政府尽可能靠后,但在必要时进行管理和监督。依法治国意味着没有例外,不管所有制或原国籍,法律面前人人平等。

 

In the 13th Five Year Plan, these principles can be shaped in a variety of ways:

 

在十三五规划中这些原则可以以各种方式体现:

 

First, China can continue to open up sectors for private investment, as it has already done effectively in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and elsewhere. A move to a nationwide negative list for restricted industries, rather than the positive list currently used could accelerate this process. The reduction of administrative burdens on small enterprises, which caused the number of new businesses to jump by 50 percent, is evidence that further improvements in the business climate has much scope to generate growth and jobs in the years ahead.

 

首先,中国可以继续推进对社会资本的行业开放,中国已在上海自贸区以及其他地方开展了有效的试点。由目前采用正面清单转向在全国推广限制类行业负面清单,可以加快这一进程。减轻小企业行政负担导致新企业数目猛增50%就是明证,说明进一步改善营商环境在未来促进增长与就业方面大有空间。

 

Second, achieving higher efficiency and more innovation requires more competition.  For the overwhelming majority of China’s enterprises, the domestic market will be the main or only market, and ensuring entry and competition in this market and avoiding the distortions and waste that come with monopolies and oligopolies is key.

 

第二,要实现提高效率和促进创新,就需要加强竞争。对于大多数中国企业来说,国内市场将成为主要的或者唯一的市场,确保这一市场的准入与竞争、防止垄断造成的扭曲和浪费是关键。

 

China could consider raising competition policy to a different level by establishing an independent competition authority that can impartially rule over uncompetitive behavior and level the playing field. 

 

中国可以考虑建立一个独立的竞争管理机构,公平地查处非竞争性行为,建立公平的竞争环境,从而将竞争政策提升到一个新高度。

 

Third, China can accelerate State-Owned Enterprise reforms. Provinces are currently developing their own reform plans, and are separating commercial from non-commercial enterprises, which is a good first step. Focusing on the return on assets of commercial SOEs and their contribution to the government budget is a second element of reforms.

 

第三,中国可以加快国有企业改革步伐。各省市自治区目前都在制定自己的国企改革计划,划分商业性和非商业性国企,这是很好的第一步。关注商业性国企的资产回报及其对政府预算的贡献是改革的第二项内容。

 

Allowing more mixed ownership in SOEs across the board can improve the way these enterprises are governed and the efficiency with which they use society’s resources.  But increasing transparency of SOEs, increasing accountability, and hardening budget constraints are crucial for higher performance and more efficient growth.

 

全面实行允许国有企业发展混合所有制经济有利于改善国企的治理方式,提高社会资源的使用效率。但增强国企的透明度、加强管理层问责和硬化预算约束,对于提高国企经营效益和实现高效增长至关重要。

 

This will also be critical for China’s role in the international arena where a level playing field – in trade, investment, and development – will be critical too.

 

这对于中国在国际舞台上发挥作用也至关重要,在贸易、投资与发展中公平的竞争环境也是关键。

 

Let me acknowledge that reforms of the depth and nature that China is pursuing are not only tough but unprecedented. As I mentioned at the outset, they often come with trade-offs and are triggering opposition by those that benefit from the status quo.

 

我承认,中国所追求的改革从深度与性质上来说不仅任务艰巨,也是前无古人的。正如我在发言一开头提到的,改革往往面临权衡取舍,而且会引发既得利益者的反对。

 

As Premier Li recently told the media:

 

正如李克强总理最近答记者问时所说:

 

“Reforms will upset vested interest. It is like taking the knife to one’s own flesh. But despite the pain we will continue.”

 

“改革是要触动利益的,就像割腕,忍痛也得下刀。”

 

Withstanding the temptation to slow or weaken the reform path towards the ‘New Normal’ will require strong leadership. So it is good to see that China’s leaders are focused and aware of the challenges ahead.

 

在通往新常态之路上,顶住放慢改革步伐或削弱改革力度的诱惑,需要有坚强的领导力。所以,看到中国领导人全神贯注且意识到所面临的挑战是一件好事。

 

If China manages to implement a truly inclusive, sustainable and efficient growth model, a triple win may be in reach: For its people, for its country and for the global community.

 

如果中国设法将真正包容、可持续和高效的增长模式付诸实施,就有可能实现三赢,对于中国人民、国家和国际社会的三赢。

 

来源:World Bank

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