Monetary Policy in the New Normal

新常态下的货币政策

 

– Remarks at 2015 China Development Forum Panel Discussion

在中国发展高层论坛专题讨论上的发言

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund

国际基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Beijing, March 22, 2015

北京，2015年3月22日

Introduction

引言

Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen.

 

女士们，先生们，下午好。

I would like to thank Mr. ZHANG Liming, Vice President of the Development Research Center, for his kind introduction, and thank you to the Development Research Center for inviting me to this important panel.

 

感谢发展研究中心副主任张来明的介绍，并感谢发展研究中心邀请我参加这一重要的

专题讨论。

It is a great pleasure to share this stage with Governor Zhou, who has so deftly guided China’s monetary policy over the past decade. China played a key role in stabilizing the global economy during the financial crisis, and has since provided vital support to the recovery.

 

非常高兴与周小川行长一起出席这一环节的讨论会。过去十年里，周行长娴熟地引导管理了中国的货币政策。中国在全球金融危机期间对稳定全球经济发挥了关键作用，并在此后为经济复苏提供了至关重要的支持。

The world has yet to achieve full economic recovery. Global growth continues to be weighed down by high debt, high unemployment, and lackluster investment. The IMF recently cut its global growth forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 (to 3.5% and 3.7%) – despite the boost from cheaper oil and stronger U.S. Growth.

 

世界尚未实现全面经济复苏。全球增长继续受到高债务、高失业和投资乏力的拖累。尽管油价下跌和美国经济增长加强对全球经济起到了促进作用，但基金组织最近仍下调了2015年和2016年的全球增长预测（分别降至3.5%和3.7%）。

The recovery remains fragile because of significant risks. One such risk emanates from the expected tightening, or normalization, of U.S. monetary policy at a time when many other countries are easing monetary conditions. This “asynchronous” monetary policy may trigger excessive volatility in global financial markets.

 

由于面临显著风险，经济复苏依然脆弱。其中一个风险是，美国货币政策预计将收紧或正常化，而其他许多国家正在货币宽松。这种“不同步”的货币政策可能引起全球金融市场出现过度波动。

The divergence of monetary policy paths has already led to a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Emerging markets could be vulnerable, because many of their banks and companies have sharply increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years.

 

货币政策路径的差异已经引起美元大幅走强。新兴市场可能容易受到不利影响，因为它们的很多银行和企业在过去五年里大量增加了美元借款。

Given these global economic conditions, I would like to briefly discuss three points:

 

鉴于上述全球经济状况，我想简要讨论三点：

• What are the cross-border effects, or “spillovers”, of unconventional monetary policies?

• 非常规货币政策有哪些跨境影响或“溢出效应”？

 

• How can emerging market economies prepare for potential market volatility?

• 新兴市场经济体如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？

 

• What is the nature of monetary policy in what we call the “new normal”?

• 我们所称的“新常态”下的货币政策具有什么性质？

1. What are the spillovers of unconventional monetary policies?

1、非常规货币政策有哪些溢出效应？

Let me start with the spillover effects. After the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, unconventional monetary policies, including large purchases of government debt, had strong, positive spillovers on the global economy – and by implication on China and other emerging market economies.

 

我首先谈谈溢出效应。2007爆发全球金融危机后，非常规货币政策（包括大量购买政府债务）对全球经济从而也对中国和其他新兴市场经济体产生了强劲的正面溢出效应。

Why? Because these policies prevented a financial market meltdown and because they have supported the recovery in advanced economies and beyond. I am convinced that, without these unconventional tools, the world would have sunk into a1930s-style depression.

 

为什么？因为这些政策防止了金融市场崩溃，并支持了发达经济体和其他经济体的复苏。我确信，如果没有采取这些非常规工具，世界将会陷入类似于上世纪30年代的萧条。

Unconventional monetary policies have also led to negative spillover effects on emerging markets through a build-up of financial stability risk. These policies triggered huge capital inflows into emerging financial markets. Between 2009 and the end of 2012, emerging markets received US$ 4½ trillion of gross capital inflows, representing about half of global capital flows during that period.

 

非常规货币政策导致金融稳定风险积累起来，所以也对新兴市场产生了负面溢出效应。这些政策引起资本大量流入新兴金融市场。在2009年到2012年底之间，新兴市场接受的资本流入总额达4.5万亿美元，约占同期全球资本流量的一半。

This led to a significant increase in bond and equity prices and to a strengthening of emerging market currencies. IMF studies suggest that these effects were larger than the ones that had been caused by conventional policies in the past.

 

这导致新兴市场的债券和股票价格大幅上涨、货币升值。基金组织的研究显示，这些效应大于过去常规政策引发的效应。

These spillovers pose a risk to financial stability in emerging markets, because policy changes could easily lead to a sudden reversal of capital flows.

 

这些溢出效应给新兴市场的金融稳定带来风险，因为政策变化很容易导致资本流动的突然逆转。

We already saw a preview of this scenario during the so-called “taper tantrum” in the summer of 2013. Merely the first hint of a change in U.S. monetary policy was enough to trigger a surge in financial market and capital flow volatility.

 

在2013年夏天的所谓“缩减恐慌”中，我们已经看到了这种情景的预演。美国货币政策刚一出现调整迹象，就足以引起金融市场和资本流动的剧烈波动。

Could this happen again? Despite the efforts of the U.S. Federal Reserve to clearly communicate its policy intentions, financial markets may still be surprised by the timing of the U.S. interest rate lift-off and by the pace of subsequent rate increases.

 

这种情况还会发生吗？尽管美联储已尽力明确地沟通了其政策意向，金融市场仍可能对美国开始加息的时机以及随后的加息步伐感到出乎意外。

The potential spillovers would affect China mostly through its trade relationships with other emerging markets. If spillovers were to cause a sustained weakness in demand in these countries, Chinese exports would certainly be affected.

 

潜在溢出效应影响中国的主要渠道是中国与其他新兴市场的贸易关系。如果溢出效应导致这些国家的需求持续疲软，那么中国的出口显然会受影响。

Given the growing importance of this topic, the IMF has continued to step up its analysis of spillover effects. We believe that this will continue to be one of our most valuable contributions in this interconnected global economy, and it may also encourage greater policy cooperation.

 

鉴于这一问题日益重要，基金组织继续加强了对溢出效应的分析。我们相信，这仍将是我们在相互关联的全球经济中做出的最有价值的贡献之一，它还有可能促进政策合作的加强。

 

2. How can emerging market economies prepare for potential market volatility?

2、新兴市场经济体如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？

Which brings me to my second point: how can emerging markets prepare for potential market volatility? Let me highlight three steps.

 

我由此接着谈第二点：新兴市场如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？我重点谈三个步骤。

First, emerging markets need to prepare well in advance. IMF research suggests that countries with better fundamentals were generally less affected by the 2013 taper tantrum and by other monetary policy spillovers from advanced economies.

 

第一，新兴市场需要提前做好充分准备。基金组织的研究显示，经济基本面较好的国家，受2013年的“缩减恐慌”以及先进经济体其他货币政策溢出效应的影响通常较小。

Second, emerging markets need to ensure that their financial systems are resilient to asset price swings and a sudden withdrawal of funding liquidity. Prudential policies should serve as a first line of defense. Much thinking has been devoted in recent years to the role that macroprudential tools can play, and it is now time to put this into action.

 

第二，新兴市场需要确保其金融体系能够经受住资产价格的大幅波动和融资流动性的突然撤离。审慎政策应作为第一道防线。近年来对宏观审慎工具的作用开展了大量研究，现在是付诸行动的时候了。

Third, if market volatility materializes, central banks need to be ready to act. Temporary –but aggressive – domestic liquidity support to some sectors or markets may be necessary. In certain conditions, foreign exchange interventions could also be used to dampen exchange rate volatility. These interventions should not be used as a substitute for needed macroeconomic adjustment. Moreover, foreign currency swap lines across countries have proven helpful in providing access to foreign exchange liquidity in times of market stress.

 

第三，如果市场确实出现动荡，中央银行需要随时准备采取行动。向一些部门或市场提供暂时但有力的国内流动性支持可能是必要的。在某些情况下，还可采取外汇干预，抑制汇率波动。这些干预措施不应取代必要的宏观经济调整。此外，各国间的外币互换额度已被证明有助于在市场面临压力时提供外汇流动性。

 

International coordination and safety nets can also play a crucial role. For example, central banks and financial supervisors may want to share their policy thinking and contingency plans. Closer cooperation between the IMF and Regional Financing Agreements – such as the BRICS Contingency Reserve Arrangement – would also be helpful.

 

国际协调和安全网也能发挥重要作用。例如，中央银行和金融监管机构可能希望分享其政策考虑和应急计划。基金组织与区域融资协定（如金砖五国应急储备安排）之间的更紧密合作也是有益的。

3. What is the nature of monetary policy in the “new normal”?

3、“新常态”下的货币政策具有什么性质？

This brings me to my third point – the nature of monetary policy in the “new normal”.

 

我下面就谈谈第三点——“新常态”下的货币政策的性质。

The question is: should monetary policy go beyond its traditional focus on price stability? One of the key lessons of the financial crisis is that price stability is necessary but not sufficient for financial stability. At times, low inflation actually coincides with brewing financial imbalances. This is why policymakers need to pay more attention to financial stability.

 

问题是：货币政策是否不应仅仅关注传统的价格稳定目标？金融危机的一个重要教训是，价格稳定是必要的，但不足以保证金融稳定。有时候，低通胀实际上伴随着金融失衡的酝酿。这就是为什么政策制定者需要更加关注金融稳定。

Does that mean that monetary policy should be responsible for price stability and financial stability? The short answer is “No”. Macro- and micro-prudential policies are the first choice to preserve financial stability. They can be better targeted, including to sectors in which risks are rising. Many countries are now adopting strong macroprudential frameworks with supporting institutions and a range of new tools.

 

这是不是意味着，货币政策应负责保证价格稳定和金融稳定呢？简短的回答是“否”。宏观和微观审慎政策是维护金融稳定的第一选择。这些政策可以有更强的针对性，包括针对那些风险正在增加的部门。许多国家目前正在采纳强有力的宏观审慎框架，这种框架有相关制度作为支撑，并具有一系列新工具。

Of course, prudential policies are not a panacea. Their effectiveness may be limited because of an incomplete policy toolkit or institutional shortcomings. They may also have negative side effects. This is why monetary policy may sometimes need to “lean against the wind” of rising financial imbalances – even as its primary focus remains on price stability.

 

当然，审慎政策不是“万能药”。这些政策的有效性可能因政策工具不完备或制度缺陷而受到限制。它们也可能产生不利的副作用。这就是为什么货币政策有时可能需要在金融失衡加剧的情况下“逆风而行”——即使其主要关注点仍是价格稳定。

Finally, as countries step up their macroprudential policies, worries are surfacing about central bank independence. If central banks receive broader mandates and use more instruments, will they come under greater political pressure? Could this undermine their independence in pursuing price stability?

 

最后，随着各国加强宏观审慎政策，对中央银行独立性的担心开始出现。如果中央银行被赋予更广泛的职能，并采用更多工具，那么它们会不会承受更大的政治压力？这会不会削弱它们维护价格稳定的独立性？

We have yet to learn more about this issue. One option is to assign both monetary and macroprudential policies to the central bank, as Ireland and New Zealand have done. Another option is to assign both to the central bank, but with governance that provides some separation between the two functions. The Bank of England was one of the first to adopt this model.

 

关于这一问题，我们还需要更多地学习和了解。一个选择是，将货币和宏观审慎政策都交给中央银行，像爱尔兰和新西兰的做法。另一个选择是，将这两项职能赋予中央银行，但需建立必要的治理结构，使这两项职能在一定程度上分离开来。英格兰银行是率先采用这种模式的中央银行之一。

There could also be a macroprudential council outside the central bank. This is essentially what the United States has done. As countries continue to experiment with different institutions, we are likely to gain important new insights into which arrangements work and which do not.

 

也可以在中央银行之外建立一个宏观审慎委员会。这正是美国采取的做法。随着各国继续探索不同的制度安排，我们会取得新的重要认识，了解哪些安排有效、哪些行不通。

Conclusion

结语

 

Let me conclude.

我来总结一下。

Monetary policy is entering a “new normal” – so too is the Chinese economy. China’s deep structural reforms will lead to slower, safer, and more sustainable growth. Macroprudential policies have already been playing a major role in this adjustment, and will continue to do so going forward. This is good for China and its people – and it is good for the world.

 

货币政策正在进入“新常态”，中国经济也是如此。中国的结构性深化改革将促成更慢但更安全、更可持续的经济增长。在这一调整过程中，宏观审慎政策已经发挥了重要作用，今后将继续发挥这种作用。这有利于中国及其人民，也有利于整个世界。

As China navigates the “new normal” to become the world’s largest economy, the IMF stands ready to help. I look forward to a fruitful discussion.

 

在中国驾驭“新常态”、成为世界最大经济体的过程中，基金组织随时准备提供帮助。

我期待着富有成效的讨论。

Thank you. Xièxiè.

 

谢谢。

 

来源：IMF

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